arXiv:2410.20118cs.LG2024-10被引 1

用深度学习加速海水入侵模拟,36万倍提速还降不确定性

GeoFUSE: A High-Efficiency Surrogate Model for Seawater Intrusion Prediction and Uncertainty Reduction

  • 用U-FNO+PCA+ESMDA构建代理模型,替代耗时仿真
  • 1500种地质情景训练后,模拟速度提升36万倍至秒级
  • 融合监测数据可显著降低预测不确定性,适合水资源管理

海平面上升加剧了沿海含水层的海水入侵风险,但传统数值模拟计算成本高昂。本文提出GeoFUSE,一种基于深度学习的代理建模框架,结合U-Net傅里叶神经算子(U-FNO)、主成分分析(PCA)和集成平滑器多数据同化(ESMDA)。在华盛顿州贝弗溪潮汐流-泛洪平原系统的二维剖面中,利用1500个地质现实进行训练,模型成功将盐度分布与累积模拟的计算时间从小时级降至秒级,实现约36万倍加速,同时保持高精度。通过融合监测井数据,该框架显著降低了地质不确定性,提升了20年期盐度分布预测精度。结果表明,GeoFUSE在提升计算效率的同时,为地下水管理提供了实时不确定性量化与决策支持工具。未来工作将拓展至三维模型,并纳入海平面上升与极端天气等因子,适用于更广泛的海岸与地下水流系统。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers poses a significant threat to groundwater resources, especially with rising sea levels due to climate change. Accurate modeling and uncertainty quantification of this process are crucial but are often hindered by the high computational costs of traditional numerical simulations. In this work, we develop GeoFUSE, a novel deep-learning-based surrogate framework that integrates the U-Net Fourier Neural Operator (U-FNO) with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ESMDA). GeoFUSE enables fast and efficient simulation of seawater intrusion while significantly reducing uncertainty in model predictions. We apply GeoFUSE to a 2D cross-section of the Beaver Creek tidal stream-floodplain system in Washington State. Using 1,500 geological realizations, we train the U-FNO surrogate model to approximate salinity distribution and accumulation. The U-FNO model successfully reduces the computational time from hours (using PFLOTRAN simulations) to seconds, achieving a speedup of approximately 360,000 times while maintaining high accuracy. By integrating measurement data from monitoring wells, the framework significantly reduces geological uncertainty and improves the predictive accuracy of the salinity distribution over a 20-year period. Our results demonstrate that GeoFUSE improves computational efficiency and provides a robust tool for real-time uncertainty quantification and decision making in groundwater management. Future work will extend GeoFUSE to 3D models and incorporate additional factors such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events, making it applicable to a broader range of coastal and subsurface flow systems.

地下水模拟深度学习不确定性量化海水入侵

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