arXiv:2410.20856cs.LGcs.AI2024-10被引 10

用图神经网络增强大模型,提升交通预测精度与可解释性。

Strada-LLM: Graph LLM for traffic prediction

  • 将邻近交通信息作为变量,显式建模时空模式。
  • 长时预测误差降低17%,效率提升16%。
  • 轻量适配策略支持少样本下快速更新,适合真实场景。

交通预测对智能交通系统至关重要,精准且可解释的预测能显著提升运营效率与安全性。其核心挑战在于不同区域间交通状态异质性强,导致数据分布差异大。大语言模型(LLM)在动态、数据稀疏场景中展现优异的少样本学习潜力。然而现有基于LLM的方法多依赖提示调优,难以充分捕捉复杂图结构关系与时空依赖,限制了适应性与可解释性。为此,我们提出Strada-LLM,一种新型多变量概率预测LLM,显式建模时空交通模式。通过引入邻近交通信息作为协变量,更有效捕获局部变化,优于基于提示的现有LLM。为进一步提升适应性,提出轻量级分布推导型领域自适应策略,在新数据分布或拓扑变化下实现参数高效更新,即使在少样本条件下亦可。在时空交通数据集上的实证评估表明,Strada-LLM持续超越先进LLM驱动与传统GNN基线模型。具体而言,长时预测RMSE误差降低17%,效率提升16%。同时,其在不同LLM主干上表现稳定,退化极小,是真实交通预测任务中通用且强大的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Traffic forecasting is pivotal for intelligent transportation systems, where accurate and interpretable predictions can significantly enhance operational efficiency and safety. A key challenge stems from the heterogeneity of traffic conditions across diverse locations, leading to highly varied traffic data distributions. Large language models (LLMs) show exceptional promise for few-shot learning in such dynamic and data-sparse scenarios. However, existing LLM-based solutions often rely on prompt-tuning, which can struggle to fully capture complex graph relationships and spatiotemporal dependencies-thereby limiting adaptability and interpretability in real-world traffic networks. We address these gaps by introducing Strada-LLM, a novel multivariate probabilistic forecasting LLM that explicitly models both temporal and spatial traffic patterns. By incorporating proximal traffic information as covariates, Strada-LLM more effectively captures local variations and outperforms prompt-based existing LLMs. To further enhance adaptability, we propose a lightweight distribution-derived strategy for domain adaptation, enabling parameter-efficient model updates when encountering new data distributions or altered network topologies-even under few-shot constraints. Empirical evaluations on spatio-temporal transportation datasets demonstrate that Strada-LLM consistently surpasses state-of-the-art LLM-driven and traditional GNN-based predictors. Specifically, it improves long-term forecasting by 17% in RMSE error and 16% more efficiency. Moreover, it maintains robust performance across different LLM backbones with minimal degradation, making it a versatile and powerful solution for real-world traffic prediction tasks.

交通预测图神经网络大模型应用

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