arXiv:2410.21405cs.LG2024-10

用贝叶斯方法优化孕产妇健康短信推送时机,显著减少呼叫次数并提升留存率。

Bayesian Collaborative Bandits with Thompson Sampling for Improved Outreach in Maternal Health Program

  • 基于贝叶斯推断与汤普森采样,高效学习低秩奖励矩阵。
  • 减少16%呼叫量,相比现有方法提升47%效率,可多服务百万孕产妇。
  • 特别适合数据少、需快速迭代的现实健康项目应用。

移动健康(mHealth)项目在优化向孕产妇发送健康提醒电话的时间上面临挑战,该问题被建模为协作多臂赌博机问题,需在线学习低秩奖励矩阵。现有方法常依赖离线矩阵补全与探索策略的启发式组合。本文提出一种基于汤普森采样的原则性贝叶斯方法,通过高效的吉布斯采样对低秩矩阵因子进行后验推断,实现更快收敛。在全球最大孕产妇mHealth项目的真实数据集上验证,本方法相较最先进基线减少16%呼叫量,较当前部署的随机策略减少47%。该效率提升可使项目容量增加0.5–1.4百万受益人,让更多人获得产前与产后护理信息。此外,受益人留存率分别提升7%(对比先进基线)和29%(对比部署策略)。合成实验进一步证明该方法在低数据场景下更优,且能有效利用先验信息。我们还针对特定情形提供了基于埃尔德维维数的理论分析。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Mobile health (mHealth) programs face a critical challenge in optimizing the timing of automated health information calls to beneficiaries. This challenge has been formulated as a collaborative multi-armed bandit problem, requiring online learning of a low-rank reward matrix. Existing solutions often rely on heuristic combinations of offline matrix completion and exploration strategies. In this work, we propose a principled Bayesian approach using Thompson Sampling for this collaborative bandit problem. Our method leverages prior information through efficient Gibbs sampling for posterior inference over the low-rank matrix factors, enabling faster convergence. We demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world dataset from the world's largest maternal mHealth program. Our approach achieves a $16\%$ reduction in the number of calls compared to existing methods and a $47$\% reduction compared to the deployed random policy. This efficiency gain translates to a potential increase in program capacity by $0.5-1.4$ million beneficiaries, granting them access to vital ante-natal and post-natal care information. Furthermore, we observe a $7\%$ and $29\%$ improvement in beneficiary retention (an extremely hard metric to impact) compared to state-of-the-art and deployed baselines, respectively. Synthetic simulations further demonstrate the superiority of our approach, particularly in low-data regimes and in effectively utilizing prior information. We also provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm in a special setting using Eluder dimension.

贝叶斯优化健康科技多臂赌博机用户留存

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