线性模型也能高效预测时间序列,还能保持可解释性。
A Temporal Linear Network for Time Series Forecasting
- 纯线性架构设计,通过膨胀卷积捕捉多尺度时序依赖。
- 在多个数据集上优于TSMixer等复杂模型,且计算效率更高。
- 可无缝转换为等效线性模型,适合需要可解释性的场景。
近期研究质疑了复杂深度学习架构在时间序列预测中的必要性,表明简单线性模型常能超越复杂方法。基于此,我们提出一种新架构——时间线性网络(Temporal Linear Net, TLN),在保持可解释性和计算高效性的同时,扩展了线性模型的能力。TLN是TSMixer的变体,整个架构严格保持线性。TSMixer通过移除激活函数、引入专用核初始化和膨胀卷积来处理多时间尺度,同时维持线性特性。与可能因置换不变性丢失时序信息的Transformer模型不同,TLN显式保留并利用输入数据的时序结构。TLN的关键创新在于其能够计算一个等效线性模型,提供TSMixer等复杂架构所不具备的可解释性。该特性支持全模型与其线性等价形式间的无缝转换,兼顾训练灵活性与推理优化。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent research has challenged the necessity of complex deep learning architectures for time series forecasting, demonstrating that simple linear models can often outperform sophisticated approaches. Building upon this insight, we introduce a novel architecture the Temporal Linear Net (TLN), that extends the capabilities of linear models while maintaining interpretability and computational efficiency. TLN is designed to effectively capture both temporal and feature-wise dependencies in multivariate time series data. Our approach is a variant of TSMixer that maintains strict linearity throughout its architecture. TSMixer removes activation functions, introduces specialized kernel initializations, and incorporates dilated convolutions to handle various time scales, while preserving the linear nature of the model. Unlike transformer-based models that may lose temporal information due to their permutation-invariant nature, TLN explicitly preserves and leverages the temporal structure of the input data. A key innovation of TLN is its ability to compute an equivalent linear model, offering a level of interpretability not found in more complex architectures such as TSMixer. This feature allows for seamless conversion between the full TLN model and its linear equivalent, facilitating both training flexibility and inference optimization.
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