arXiv:2410.21484cs.LGcs.CE2024-10综述被引 10

机器学习提升体育博彩精准度,优化赔率与风险控制。

A Systematic Review of Machine Learning in Sports Betting: Techniques, Challenges, and Future Directions

  • 用支持向量机、随机森林等模型分析历史与实时数据
  • 实现动态赔率调整,提升盈利与风控能力
  • 适合关注数据驱动决策与算法风险的从业者

体育博彩行业因技术进步和在线平台普及而迅速发展。机器学习在该领域发挥关键作用,推动更精准的预测、动态赔率设定和风险管控,服务于庄家与投注者。本文系统回顾了支持向量机、随机森林、神经网络等模型在足球、篮球、网球、板球等项目中的应用,利用历史数据、赛中统计与实时信息优化投注策略,识别价值投注,提升收益。庄家借助机器学习实现动态赔率调整与有效风险管理,投注者则通过数据洞察捕捉市场偏差。此外,异常检测模型被用于欺诈行为识别。尽管如此,数据质量、实时决策及体育结果的不可预测性仍是主要挑战,透明度与公平性也引发伦理关切。未来研究应聚焦可适应的多模态数据融合模型,借鉴金融组合管理方式应对风险。本综述全面评估了机器学习在体育博彩中的应用现状,揭示其潜力与局限。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The sports betting industry has experienced rapid growth, driven largely by technological advancements and the proliferation of online platforms. Machine learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in the transformation of this sector by enabling more accurate predictions, dynamic odds-setting, and enhanced risk management for both bookmakers and bettors. This systematic review explores various ML techniques, including support vector machines, random forests, and neural networks, as applied in different sports such as soccer, basketball, tennis, and cricket. These models utilize historical data, in-game statistics, and real-time information to optimize betting strategies and identify value bets, ultimately improving profitability. For bookmakers, ML facilitates dynamic odds adjustment and effective risk management, while bettors leverage data-driven insights to exploit market inefficiencies. This review also underscores the role of ML in fraud detection, where anomaly detection models are used to identify suspicious betting patterns. Despite these advancements, challenges such as data quality, real-time decision-making, and the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes remain. Ethical concerns related to transparency and fairness are also of significant importance. Future research should focus on developing adaptive models that integrate multimodal data and manage risk in a manner akin to financial portfolios. This review provides a comprehensive examination of the current applications of ML in sports betting, and highlights both the potential and the limitations of these technologies.

机器学习体育博彩风险控制数据驱动

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