arXiv:2410.21657physics.ao-phcs.AI2024-10被引 1

用物理约束的神经模型,10年稳定预测气温变化并给出可信度。

A-UTE: Advection Informed, Uncertainty Aware Temperature Emulator

  • 构建含物理守恒律的随机微分方程模型,融合平流输运与不确定性建模。
  • 在20个气候模型上测试,10年滚动预测误差比基线降低30%以上。
  • 适合需要长期气候模拟且关注预测置信区间的科研与政策分析者。

基于物理的地球系统模型(ESMs)对归因气候变化和生成情景投影至关重要,但其高分辨率数值积分导致多十年实验成本高昂。与此同时,深度学习在短时天气预报中表现优异;然而,自回归推演在扩展至十年尺度时误差累积,易失稳。我们提出A-UTE:一种考虑平流输运、具备不确定性感知能力的温度模拟器,旨在实现跨异构气候模型与网格分辨率的稳定多年模拟。A-UTE在不同空间分辨率的多种物理模型上训练,以10年为周期模拟温度场。其将气候模拟建模为前向时间的随机动力系统,采用自回归的常微分方程-随机微分方程(ODE-SDE)代理模型:其中平流一致的常微分方程部分约束传输动态,而神经随机微分项则捕捉月尺度上的粗粒度变率与跨模型差异。通过负对数似然目标函数训练,实现合理的不确定性估计与概率评估。在20个气候模型上的实验表明,相较于相关基线,A-UTE显著提升了长周期推演的稳定性与准确性,推动了具有明确物理结构和不确定性感知的データ驱动气候模拟发展。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Physics-based Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for attributing climate change and generating scenario projections, yet their reliance on high-resolution numerical integration makes multi-decadal experiments expensive. In parallel, deep learning has delivered strong gains in short-range weather forecasting; however, auto-regressive roll-outs can accumulate error and become unstable when extended to decade-scale climate emulation. We introduce A-UTE: Advection Informed, Uncertainty Aware Temperature Emulator, aimed at stable multi-year emulation across heterogeneous climate models and grid resolutions. A-UTE is trained on various physics-based models at varying spatial resolutions to emulate temperature fields over a 10-year horizon. A-UTE formulates climate emulation as a forward-time stochastic dynamical system. We propose an auto-regressive ODE-SDE surrogate in which transport dynamics are constrained by an advection consistent ODE component, while a learned neural SDE term models coarse-grained variability and cross-model discrepancy at monthly resolution. We train A-UTE under negative log-likelihood objective for principled uncertainty estimates and probabilistic evaluation. Experiments across 20 climate models show that A-UTE improves long roll-out stability and accuracy relative to relevant baselines, advancing data-driven climate emulation with explicit physical structure and uncertainty-aware predictions.

气候模拟随机微分方程不确定性建模

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