用预训练微调的注意力神经算子,精准预测故障后电压轨迹区间。
Conformalized Prediction of Post-Fault Voltage Trajectories Using Pre-trained and Finetuned Attention-Driven Neural Operators
- 基于注意力机制的神经算子模型,直接映射故障前电压到故障后轨迹
- 在新英格兰39节点系统上,覆盖率达95%以上,区间宽度合理
- 融合联邦学习与分位数预测,适合电力系统安全评估与运维
本文提出一种新的数据驱动方法,用于预测电力系统故障后电压轨迹的置信区间。我们引入了分位数注意力-傅里叶深度算子网络(QAF-DeepONet),无需分布假设即可准确估计目标轨迹的分位数,实现对故障后电压动态的建模。该算子回归模型将观测到的故障前电压轨迹映射至未观测的故障后轨迹。为应对数据有限问题,采用预训练与微调流程:通过联邦学习整合邻近母线数据进行预训练,保护数据隐私;再在目标母线数据上微调,适应局部运行特性。最后将置信区间预测融入微调模型,确保预测区间的覆盖率。在包含详细电压与频率控制器的新英格兰39节点测试系统上验证,采用预测区间覆盖率(PICP)和归一化平均区间宽度(PINAW)评估,结果表明该方法能提供实用且可靠的不确定性量化,有效预测故障后电压轨迹区间。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper proposes a new data-driven methodology for predicting intervals of post-fault voltage trajectories in power systems. We begin by introducing the Quantile Attention-Fourier Deep Operator Network (QAF-DeepONet), designed to capture the complex dynamics of voltage trajectories and reliably estimate quantiles of the target trajectory without any distributional assumptions. The proposed operator regression model maps the observed portion of the voltage trajectory to its unobserved post-fault trajectory. Our methodology employs a pre-training and fine-tuning process to address the challenge of limited data availability. To ensure data privacy in learning the pre-trained model, we use merging via federated learning with data from neighboring buses, enabling the model to learn the underlying voltage dynamics from such buses without directly sharing their data. After pre-training, we fine-tune the model with data from the target bus, allowing it to adapt to unique dynamics and operating conditions. Finally, we integrate conformal prediction into the fine-tuned model to ensure coverage guarantees for the predicted intervals. We evaluated the performance of the proposed methodology using the New England 39-bus test system considering detailed models of voltage and frequency controllers. Two metrics, Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) and Prediction Interval Normalized Average Width (PINAW), are used to numerically assess the model's performance in predicting intervals. The results show that the proposed approach offers practical and reliable uncertainty quantification in predicting the interval of post-fault voltage trajectories.
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