arXiv:2411.00156cs.AIcs.CY2024-11NeurIPS被引 3

用AI整合全球专家智慧,发现更优抗疫政策方案

Unlocking the Potential of Global Human Expertise

  • 构建进化式AI框架RHEA,融合人类专家模型知识
  • 在235个地区验证中,比单一专家或AI更有效
  • 适合参与全球性问题攻关的研究者与决策者

解决全球性社会问题需汇聚多元国际专家的创意与方法。随着专家数量和多样性增加,其集体知识中互补信息的组合与优化潜力越大,但识别、融合与精炼这些知识极为困难。本文提出一种名为RHEA的进化AI框架,将人类专家构建的多样模型提炼为等效神经网络,并通过群体搜索进行再组合与优化。该框架在合成领域验证了其透明性与系统性;随后应用于XPRIZE新冠疫情应对挑战赛,该赛事有来自23个国家的超100支团队提交基于不同方法的模型,用于预测新冠病例并为235个地区提供非药物干预政策建议。基于169个政策建议模型,RHEA重新组合并优化后,生成的政策集在真实数据上表现优于单独的人类或AI专家。结果表明,AI能有效释放全球人类专家知识的潜在价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Solving societal problems on a global scale requires the collection and processing of ideas and methods from diverse sets of international experts. As the number and diversity of human experts increase, so does the likelihood that elements in this collective knowledge can be combined and refined to discover novel and better solutions. However, it is difficult to identify, combine, and refine complementary information in an increasingly large and diverse knowledge base. This paper argues that artificial intelligence (AI) can play a crucial role in this process. An evolutionary AI framework, termed RHEA, fills this role by distilling knowledge from diverse models created by human experts into equivalent neural networks, which are then recombined and refined in a population-based search. The framework was implemented in a formal synthetic domain, demonstrating that it is transparent and systematic. It was then applied to the results of the XPRIZE Pandemic Response Challenge, in which over 100 teams of experts across 23 countries submitted models based on diverse methodologies to predict COVID-19 cases and suggest non-pharmaceutical intervention policies for 235 nations, states, and regions across the globe. Building upon this expert knowledge, by recombining and refining the 169 resulting policy suggestion models, RHEA discovered a broader and more effective set of policies than either AI or human experts alone, as evaluated based on real-world data. The results thus suggest that AI can play a crucial role in realizing the potential of human expertise in global problem-solving.

AI决策全球协作政策优化

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