arXiv:2411.00426cs.LGcs.SY2024-11被引 1

融合分子与工艺信息,提升全球变暖潜势预测准确率与可解释性。

A KAN-based Interpretable Framework for Process-Informed Prediction of Global Warming Potential

  • 结合分子描述符与工艺文本信息,构建联合预测模型。
  • 测试集R²达86%,较基准提升25%。
  • 采用KAN生成符号公式,实现黑箱模型的透明化解释。

准确预测全球变暖潜势(GWP)对评估化学品和材料的环境影响至关重要。传统模型主要依赖分子结构,忽视了关键的工艺信息。本研究提出一种整合分子描述符(MACCS keys、Mordred描述符)与工艺信息(工艺标题、描述、位置)的GWP预测模型。基于深度神经网络(DNN),使用Mordred描述符、工艺位置与描述信息,在测试集上取得86%的R²,相比此前61%的基准提升25%;XAI分析表明工艺标题嵌入对预测有显著贡献。为增强可解释性,采用柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络(KAN)推导出用于GWP预测的符号公式,捕捉关键分子与工艺特征,提供透明可解释的替代方案。误差分析显示,模型在数据密集区域表现稳定,高GWP值区域不确定性增加,有助于用户有效管理预测风险,支持化学与工艺设计中的数据驱动决策。结果表明,同时融合分子与工艺层面信息可显著提升预测精度与可解释性,为可持续评估提供有力工具。未来工作可扩展至其他环境影响类别,并进一步优化模型可靠性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate prediction of Global Warming Potential (GWP) is essential for assessing the environmental impact of chemical processes and materials. Traditional GWP prediction models rely predominantly on molecular structure, overlooking critical process-related information. In this study, we present an integrative GWP prediction model that combines molecular descriptors (MACCS keys and Mordred descriptors) with process information (process title, description, and location) to improve predictive accuracy and interpretability. Using a deep neural network (DNN) model, we achieved an R-squared of 86% on test data with Mordred descriptors, process location, and description information, representing a 25% improvement over the previous benchmark of 61%; XAI analysis further highlighted the significant role of process title embeddings in enhancing model predictions. To enhance interpretability, we employed a Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) to derive a symbolic formula for GWP prediction, capturing key molecular and process features and providing a transparent, interpretable alternative to black-box models, enabling users to gain insights into the molecular and process factors influencing GWP. Error analysis showed that the model performs reliably in densely populated data ranges, with increased uncertainty for higher GWP values. This analysis allows users to manage prediction uncertainty effectively, supporting data-driven decision-making in chemical and process design. Our results suggest that integrating both molecular and process-level information in GWP prediction models yields substantial gains in accuracy and interpretability, offering a valuable tool for sustainability assessments. Future work may extend this approach to additional environmental impact categories and refine the model to further enhance its predictive reliability.

GWP预测可解释性工艺信息KAN

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