训练通用库存代理,零样本泛化应对未知需求与周期不确定性
Zero-shot Generalization in Inventory Management: Train, then Estimate and Decide
- 构建统一框架,训练可泛化的深度强化学习策略
- 在未知参数下表现优于传统策略和在线学习方法
- 适合需要快速部署、参数动态变化的实时库存系统
将深度强化学习应用于实际库存管理面临动态环境和不确定参数(如需求与提前期分布)的挑战。本文探索一个未充分研究的方向:在零样本泛化(ZSG)下训练通用能力代理(GCAs)。GCAs 是设计用于处理多种库存挑战的先进策略,具备在未见实例和未知参数下无需重训即可应用的能力。本文提出统一的超马尔可夫决策过程形式,并构建「训练-估计-决策」(TED)框架,包含三个阶段:在多样本问题实例上训练 GCA,部署时持续估计问题参数,基于估计结果做决策。针对具有缺货损失、周期性需求和随机提前期的周期审查库存问题,所训练的通用缺货网络(GC-LSN)在参数已知时始终优于经典传统策略。当需求与/或提前期分布初始未知需估计时,其与 Kaplan-Meier 估计器结合,在实证性能上超越提供最坏情况保证的在线学习方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Deploying deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in real-world inventory management presents challenges, including dynamic environments and uncertain problem parameters, e.g. demand and lead time distributions. These challenges highlight a research gap, suggesting a need for a unifying framework to model and solve sequential decision-making under parameter uncertainty. We address this by exploring an underexplored area of DRL for inventory management: training generally capable agents (GCAs) under zero-shot generalization (ZSG). Here, GCAs are advanced DRL policies designed to handle a broad range of sampled problem instances with diverse inventory challenges. ZSG refers to the ability to successfully apply learned policies to unseen instances with unknown parameters without retraining. We propose a unifying Super-Markov Decision Process formulation and the Train, then Estimate and Decide (TED) framework to train and deploy a GCA tailored to inventory management applications. The TED framework consists of three phases: training a GCA on varied problem instances, continuously estimating problem parameters during deployment, and making decisions based on these estimates. Applied to periodic review inventory problems with lost sales, cyclic demand patterns, and stochastic lead times, our trained agent, the Generally Capable Lost Sales Network (GC-LSN) consistently outperforms well-known traditional policies when problem parameters are known. Moreover, under conditions where demand and/or lead time distributions are initially unknown and must be estimated, we benchmark against online learning methods that provide worst-case performance guarantees. Our GC-LSN policy, paired with the Kaplan-Meier estimator, is demonstrated to complement these methods by providing superior empirical performance.
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