arXiv:2411.00821cs.LG2024-11

提升交通风险识别全面性,可定位任意路段的高危因素

ROADFIRST: A Comprehensive Enhancement of the Systemic Approach to Safety for Improved Risk Factor Identification and Evaluation

  • 用随机森林与SHAP分析融合动态静态特征,识别关键风险因素
  • 在北卡罗来纳州数据上量化三类肇事因素的路段风险等级
  • 为地方交通部门提供可复用的风险评估框架,助力全面安全规划

许多机构采用联邦公路管理局推荐的系统性交通安全管理方法,作为传统事故热点分析的重要补充,依据识别出的风险因素制定区域安全项目。然而该方法仅针对特定事故类型和设施类型,导致事故与基础设施数据利用效率低,风险评估不全面,且对策选择受限。为此,本文提出增强版流程ROADFIRST,使用户可在任意路段识别潜在事故类型及致因因素。基于随机森林与SHAP解释方法,结合北卡罗来纳州的事故与道路清单数据,分析动态与静态交通特征对酒驾、分心驾驶、超速三类典型致因因素的影响,识别并排序关键影响特征,量化全省路段在各类致因下的风险水平。所提出的模型与方法可为各州及地方机构进一步开发ROADFIRST提供范例,推动更全面的区域性安全改善项目规划。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many agencies have adopted the FHWA-recommended systemic approach to traffic safety, an essential supplement to the traditional hotspot crash analysis which develops region-wide safety projects based on identified risk factors. However, this approach narrows analysis to specific crash and facility types. This specification causes inefficient use of crash and inventory data as well as non-comprehensive risk evaluation and countermeasure selection for each location. To improve the comprehensiveness of the systemic approach to safety, we develop an enhanced process, ROADFIRST, that allows users to identify potential crash types and contributing factors at any location. As the knowledge base for such a process, crash types and contributing factors are analyzed with respect to features of interest, including both dynamic and static traffic-related features, using Random Forest and analyzed with the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. We identify and rank features impacting the likelihood of three sample contributing factors, namely alcohol-impaired driving, distracted driving, and speeding, according to crash and road inventory data from North Carolina, and quantify state-wide road segment risk for each contributing factor. The introduced models and methods serve as a sample for the further development of ROADFIRST by state and local agencies, which benefits the planning of more comprehensive region-wide safety improvement projects.

交通安全风险评估机器学习

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