用大模型提升能源预测精度,自动处理稀疏数据并识别错误信息。
EF-LLM: Energy Forecasting LLM with AI-assisted Automation, Enhanced Sparse Prediction, Hallucination Detection
- 结合时序与文本数据,通过参数高效微调实现多模态融合预测。
- 在负荷、光伏、风电场景中均实现高精度预测,稀疏数据下表现优异。
- 首次支持能源领域幻觉检测,适合能源调度与智能决策场景使用。
精准预测有助于实现能源系统供需平衡,支撑决策与调度。传统模型依赖专家、缺乏AI自动化,成本高且难以处理稀疏数据。为此,我们提出能源预测大语言模型EF-LLM,融合领域知识与时间序列数据,支持预测前准备与预测后决策支持。通过持续学习与可更新的LoRA机制,以及多通道架构对齐异构多模态数据,实现知识持续更新。采用融合参数高效微调(F-PEFT)方法,有效利用时序数据与文本信息,在稀疏数据条件下仍保持高精度预测。此外,EF-LLM是首个具备幻觉检测能力的能源专用大模型,通过多任务学习、语义相似性分析与ANOVA量化幻觉发生率。已在负荷、光伏、风电预测场景中取得成功。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction helps to achieve supply-demand balance in energy systems, supporting decision-making and scheduling. Traditional models, lacking AI-assisted automation, rely on experts, incur high costs, and struggle with sparse data prediction. To address these challenges, we propose the Energy Forecasting Large Language Model (EF-LLM), which integrates domain knowledge and temporal data for time-series forecasting, supporting both pre-forecast operations and post-forecast decision-support. EF-LLM's human-AI interaction capabilities lower the entry barrier in forecasting tasks, reducing the need for extra expert involvement. To achieve this, we propose a continual learning approach with updatable LoRA and a multi-channel architecture for aligning heterogeneous multimodal data, enabling EF-LLM to continually learn heterogeneous multimodal knowledge. In addition, EF-LLM enables accurate predictions under sparse data conditions through its ability to process multimodal data. We propose Fusion Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (F-PEFT) method to effectively leverage both time-series data and text for this purpose. EF-LLM is also the first energy-specific LLM to detect hallucinations and quantify their occurrence rate, achieved via multi-task learning, semantic similarity analysis, and ANOVA. We have achieved success in energy prediction scenarios for load, photovoltaic, and wind power forecast.
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