灵活预测任意时段犯罪热点,突破固定时间粒度限制
An Event-centric Framework for Predicting Crime Hotspots with Flexible Time Intervals
- 以事件为中心建模,用连续时间注意力捕捉犯罪关联
- 在双城12类犯罪数据上,对任意时间段预测准确率超基线
- 适合城市安防、警务调度等需要动态预警的场景
城市犯罪热点预测是具有重要社会意义的复杂任务,受时空相关性和不规则性影响显著。现有方法多采用固定时间粒度和序列模型,难以适应不同时间段需求。例如用户可能关注12:00-20:00的犯罪热点。为此,我们提出FlexiCrime——一种支持灵活时间区间预测的事件中心框架。该框架引入连续时间注意力网络,学习跨时空的犯罪上下文特征;同时设计类型感知的时空点过程,量化特定犯罪类型在给定时空位置的风险,基于历史事件频率建模犯罪演化。结合上下文与演化特征,可预测任意未来时间区间内的犯罪热点。我们在两个城市的实际数据集上进行实验,覆盖十二类犯罪,结果表明本模型在灵活时间区间预测上优于基准方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predicting crime hotspots in a city is a complex and critical task with significant societal implications. Numerous spatiotemporal correlations and irregularities pose substantial challenges to this endeavor. Existing methods commonly employ fixed-time granularities and sequence prediction models. However, determining appropriate time granularities is difficult, leading to inaccurate predictions for specific time windows. For example, users might ask: What are the crime hotspots during 12:00-20:00? To address this issue, we introduce FlexiCrime, a novel event-centric framework for predicting crime hotspots with flexible time intervals. FlexiCrime incorporates a continuous-time attention network to capture correlations between crime events, which learns crime context features, representing general crime patterns across time points and locations. Furthermore, we introduce a type-aware spatiotemporal point process that learns crime-evolving features, measuring the risk of specific crime types at a given time and location by considering the frequency of past crime events. The crime context and evolving features together allow us to predict whether an urban area is a crime hotspot given a future time interval. To evaluate FlexiCrime's effectiveness, we conducted experiments using real-world datasets from two cities, covering twelve crime types. The results show that our model outperforms baseline techniques in predicting crime hotspots over flexible time intervals.
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