arXiv:2411.01266cs.LGstat.ML2024-11

动态调整量化原型,提升高密度区域预测精度与覆盖率

Conformalized High-Density Quantile Regression via Dynamic Prototypes-based Probability Density Estimation

  • 用可变原型动态优化量化区间,避免固定分箱缺陷
  • 在多数据集上实现更高覆盖率和更强鲁棒性
  • 适合需要精准高密度预测的高维数据场景

现有分位数回归方法将输出量化为固定分箱,虽能捕捉高密度预测区域并避开凸约束,但受限于量化误差和维度灾难。本文提出基于动态原型的概率密度估计方法,通过训练中自适应增删改量化分箱,实现更优的高密度区域建模。结合置信校准机制,保证覆盖有效性,聚焦最高概率密度区。实验表明,该方法在多种数据集与维度下均获得高质量预测区域,同时使用更少原型与内存,具备良好可扩展性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent methods in quantile regression have adopted a classification perspective to handle challenges posed by heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed data by quantizing outputs into fixed bins. Although these regression-as-classification frameworks can capture high-density prediction regions and bypass convex quantile constraints, they are restricted by quantization errors and the curse of dimensionality due to a constant number of bins per dimension. To address these limitations, we introduce a conformalized high-density quantile regression approach with a dynamically adaptive set of prototypes. Our method optimizes the set of prototypes by adaptively adding, deleting, and relocating quantization bins throughout the training process. Moreover, our conformal scheme provides valid coverage guarantees, focusing on regions with the highest probability density. Experiments across diverse datasets and dimensionalities confirm that our method consistently achieves high-quality prediction regions with enhanced coverage and robustness, all while utilizing fewer prototypes and memory, ensuring scalability to higher dimensions. The code is available at https://github.com/batuceng/max_quantile .

分位数回归概率密度估计动态原型置信校准

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