arXiv:2411.01982stat.MLcs.LG2024-11被引 3

从轨迹数据学习受控随机微分方程的系数,实现密度流精准拟合。

Learning Controlled Stochastic Differential Equations

  • 基于核方法估计每种控制下的密度流,通过福克-普朗克方程反推漂移与扩散系数。
  • 在有限样本下,密度流误差随控制数量增加而降低,收敛速率由维数和正则性决定。
  • 适用于需要高精度密度建模的强化学习、金融模拟等场景,尤其关注尾部风险。

我们研究从轨迹数据中学习受控随机微分方程(SDE)的问题,其漂移和扩散项非线性依赖于时间、状态和控制值。给定若干来自有限维族的控制样本,以及每个控制下在固定时域内离散观测的多条独立轨迹,目标是估计能重现观测动态密度流的系数。本文提出一种用于多维非线性受控SDE的核方法:先对每种采样控制估计密度流,再通过匹配福克-普朗克方程中的密度流来拟合漂移项 $b$ 与扩散矩阵 $a=σσ^ op$。在Sobolev正则性假设下,证明了学习与真实SDE之间密度流的 $L^2$ 误差的有限样本界,该误差随采样控制数 $K$ 增加而减小,收敛速率由状态与控制参数化维度及Sobolev正则性决定。进一步获得关于控制均匀的保证以及针对尾部敏感量的CVaR型界。数值实验验证方法有效性,并提供开源Python实现。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We study the problem of learning controlled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) \[ dX_t = b(t,X_t,u_t)\,dt + σ(t,X_t,u_t)\,dW_t, \] whose drift and diffusion depend nonlinearly on time, state, and control values. From trajectory data, we aim to estimate coefficients whose induced density flows reproduce those of the observed dynamics. The data consist of several controls sampled from a finite-dimensional family and, for each control, multiple independent trajectories observed at discrete times over a fixed horizon. The controls are observed inputs, not learner-selected decisions. We propose a kernel method for multidimensional nonlinear controlled SDEs. The method estimates the density flow for each sampled control, then fits the drift $b$ and diffusion matrix $a=σσ^\top$ by matching the estimated flows through the Fokker-Planck equation. Under Sobolev regularity assumptions, we prove finite-sample bounds on the error between the density flows of the learned and true SDEs, measured in $L^2$ over controls, time, and state. The bounds quantify how the error decreases with the number $K$ of sampled controls, with rates determined by the state and control-parametrization dimensions and Sobolev regularity. We further derive uniform-in-control guarantees and CVaR-type bounds for tail-sensitive quantities. Numerical experiments illustrate the method, and an open-source Python implementation is provided.

随机微分方程密度流核方法控制学习

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