arXiv:2411.02343cs.LG2024-11

用向量建模攀岩选手与路线的多维能力,提升比赛结果预测精度。

Boulder2Vec: Modeling Climber Performances in Professional Bouldering Competitions

  • 将攀岩选手和路线表示为低维向量,通过点积预测表现。
  • 相比单参数回归,新方法在2008-2022数据上显著提升预测准确率。
  • 可揭示选手的技术偏好,适合研究攀岩表现或运动数据分析者。

基于2008至2022年职业攀岩比赛数据,我们训练逻辑回归模型以预测选手成绩并衡量其技能水平。然而,该方法受限于每位选手仅用单一数值系数表示,难以刻画其在不同路线中的强弱差异。例如,部分选手擅长静态技术型路线,另一些则更适应爆发力驱动的动态路线。为此,我们采用概率矩阵分解(PMF)框架,将选手与路线特征表示为低维潜空间向量,通过向量点积预测表现。该方法能有效处理稀疏数据(如每条路线仅有部分选手尝试),并通过相似选手间的模式外推实现泛化。我们对比了PMF与逻辑回归的实证表现,并分析其生成的多变量表示,揭示选手能力特征。结果表明,多维向量表示在捕捉选手整体实力及专项技能方面显著优于传统方法。代码已开源:https://github.com/baronet2/boulder2vec。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Using data from professional bouldering competitions from 2008 to 2022, we train a logistic regression to predict climber results and measure climber skill. However, this approach is limited, as a single numeric coefficient per climber cannot adequately capture the intricacies of climbers' varying strengths and weaknesses in different boulder problems. For example, some climbers might prefer more static, technical routes while other climbers may specialize in powerful, dynamic problems. To this end, we apply Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF), a framework commonly used in recommender systems, to represent the unique characteristics of climbers and problems with latent, multi-dimensional vectors. In this framework, a climber's performance on a given problem is predicted by taking the dot product of the corresponding climber vector and problem vectors. PMF effectively handles sparse datasets, such as our dataset where only a subset of climbers attempt each particular problem, by extrapolating patterns from similar climbers. We contrast the empirical performance of PMF to the logistic regression approach and investigate the multivariate representations produced by PMF to gain insights into climber characteristics. Our results show that the multivariate PMF representations improve predictive performance of professional bouldering competitions by capturing both the overall strength of climbers and their specialized skill sets. We provide our code open-source at https://github.com/baronet2/boulder2vec.

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