arXiv:2411.02542cs.LGcs.SI2024-11中稿 · Sigspatial 2024被引 4

提出并发假设,提升交通事件预测的图神经网络性能

Enhancing Graph Neural Networks in Large-scale Traffic Incident Analysis with Concurrency Hypothesis

  • 基于道路网邻接节点事件并发现象设计新指标
  • 在12种GNN模型上实现F1提升3%-13%,AUC提升1.3%-9%
  • 适合交通安全、城市规划与智能驾驶领域研究者

尽管交通事故死亡率持续下降,但依然居高不下,亟需更有效的安全干预。本研究基于美国49个州的大规模道路网络数据,从直观观察出发提出并发假设:道路网中邻近节点存在显著的事故并发可能性。为量化该现象,引入两个新指标——平均邻接碰撞密度(ANCD)和平均邻接碰撞连续性(ANCC),并通过统计检验严格验证假设。在此基础上,提出并发先验(CP)方法,通过极低额外参数量的分词机制,使通用图神经网络(GNN)模型能够融合并发事件信息。在真实世界跨州、跨城市数据上的大规模实验表明,将CP集成至12种前沿GNN架构后,F1得分提升3%~13%,AUC提升1.3%~9%。代码已公开于https://github.com/xiwenc1/Incident-GNN-CP。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Despite recent progress in reducing road fatalities, the persistently high rate of traffic-related deaths highlights the necessity for improved safety interventions. Leveraging large-scale graph-based nationwide road network data across 49 states in the USA, our study first posits the Concurrency Hypothesis from intuitive observations, suggesting a significant likelihood of incidents occurring at neighboring nodes within the road network. To quantify this phenomenon, we introduce two novel metrics, Average Neighbor Crash Density (ANCD) and Average Neighbor Crash Continuity (ANCC), and subsequently employ them in statistical tests to validate the hypothesis rigorously. Building upon this foundation, we propose the Concurrency Prior (CP) method, a powerful approach designed to enhance the predictive capabilities of general Graph Neural Network (GNN) models in semi-supervised traffic incident prediction tasks. Our method allows GNNs to incorporate concurrent incident information, as mentioned in the hypothesis, via tokenization with negligible extra parameters. The extensive experiments, utilizing real-world data across states and cities in the USA, demonstrate that integrating CP into 12 state-of-the-art GNN architectures leads to significant improvements, with gains ranging from 3% to 13% in F1 score and 1.3% to 9% in AUC metrics. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiwenc1/Incident-GNN-CP.

图神经网络交通预测并发建模智能交通

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