arXiv:2411.02709cs.LGstat.ML2024-11

用区块链数据+混合模型预测碳价波动,效果优于传统方法。

Carbon price fluctuation prediction using blockchain information A new hybrid machine learning approach

  • 结合空洞CNN与LSTM提取特征,提升预测效率。
  • 引入L2正则化后,模型预测误差更低,准确率显著提升。
  • 适合关注碳交易、数字政策的学者与从业者参考。

本文提出一种新型混合机器学习方法用于碳价波动预测。研究构建了融合空洞卷积神经网络(DILATED CNN)与长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的框架,增强特征提取能力。在该框架基础上,采用L1和L2参数范数惩罚作为正则化手段进行预测,并基于已有文献中能源价格与区块链信息高度相关性的发现,通过正则化过程引入区块链相关指标。实验使用大规模数据集验证,结果表明:相比传统CNN-LSTM架构,所提出的DILATED CNN-LSTM框架表现更优;其中,采用L2正则化的岭回归(RR)在碳价预测中优于采用L1正则化的平滑折剪绝对偏差惩罚(SCAD)。因此,所提出的RR-DILATED CNN-LSTM方法能有效且准确地捕捉碳价波动趋势。本研究为碳价趋势预测及数字资产政策评估提供了新的理论支持与实践依据。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this study, the novel hybrid machine learning approach is proposed in carbon price fluctuation prediction. Specifically, a research framework integrating DILATED Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network algorithm is proposed. The advantage of the combined framework is that it can make feature extraction more efficient. Then, based on the DILATED CNN-LSTM framework, the L1 and L2 parameter norm penalty as regularization method is adopted to predict. Referring to the characteristics of high correlation between energy indicator price and blockchain information in previous literature, and we primarily includes indicators related to blockchain information through regularization process. Based on the above methods, this paper uses a dataset containing an amount of data to carry out the carbon price prediction. The experimental results show that the DILATED CNN-LSTM framework is superior to the traditional CNN-LSTM architecture. Blockchain information can effectively predict the price. Since parameter norm penalty as regularization, Ridge Regression (RR) as L2 regularization is better than Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation Penalty (SCAD) as L1 regularization in price forecasting. Thus, the proposed RR-DILATED CNN-LSTM approach can effectively and accurately predict the fluctuation trend of the carbon price. Therefore, the new forecasting methods and theoretical ecology proposed in this study provide a new basis for trend prediction and evaluating digital assets policy represented by the carbon price for both the academia and practitioners.

碳价预测区块链混合模型机器学习

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