用局部状态转移信息组合推断时间序列参数,提升模拟效率。
Compositional simulation-based inference for time series

- 通过分析每个状态转移的局部一致性,分步推断参数
- 在生态与流行病学模拟中,所需仿真次数显著减少
- 适合高维时间序列数据,如百万维流体模拟
基于模拟的推断(SBI)方法通过训练神经网络在模拟数据上进行贝叶斯推断,避免对可计算似然函数的依赖,但通常需要大量模拟且难以扩展到时间序列数据。科学模拟器常通过数千次单状态转移逐步模拟真实动态过程。本文提出一种新SBI方法,利用此类马尔可夫模拟器的特性,通过识别与各状态转移局部一致的参数,并将这些局部结果组合,得到与整个时间序列观测一致的后验分布。研究聚焦于神经后验评分估计,也展示了其在神经似然(比)估计中的应用。在多个合成基准任务及生态学、流行病学模拟器上验证,该方法比直接估计全局后验更高效。最后,在约一百万维数据维度的高维柯尔莫戈洛夫流模拟器上验证了其可扩展性与仿真效率。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has been challenging to scale to time series data. Scientific simulators frequently emulate real-world dynamics through thousands of single-state transitions over time. We propose an SBI approach that can exploit such Markovian simulators by locally identifying parameters consistent with individual state transitions. We then compose these local results to obtain a posterior over parameters that align with the entire time series observation. We focus on applying this approach to neural posterior score estimation but also show how it can be applied, e.g., to neural likelihood (ratio) estimation. We demonstrate that our approach is more simulation-efficient than directly estimating the global posterior on several synthetic benchmark tasks and simulators used in ecology and epidemiology. Finally, we validate scalability and simulation efficiency of our approach by applying it to a high-dimensional Kolmogorov flow simulator with around one million data dimensions.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。