梳理AI技术前沿趋势,研判发展机遇与风险。
AI Horizon Scanning -- White Paper p3395, IEEE-SA. Part III: Technology Watch: a selection of key developments, emerging technologies, and industry trends in Artificial Intelligence
- 从软硬件到机器人,系统评估AI技术发展现状
- 聚焦生成式AI爆发后的新产品与创新浪潮
- 适合关注AI治理与产业趋势的决策者阅读
生成式人工智能技术在Chat-GPT发布后进入前所未有的快速发展阶段,引发公众广泛关注。随着AI产品部署呈几何级增长,社会对技术带来的机遇与威胁日益重视,亟需监管与标准建设以确保技术发展符合社会需求、创造广泛价值并降低风险。本文是IEEE-SA p3995标准系列白皮书的第三部分,旨在冷静、客观地评估当前人工智能技术的发展状态,识别主要趋势、前景及潜在风险。内容涵盖软件与硬件进展、企业生态背景,简要回顾了人工智能语境下机器人领域的进展,并分析了日益增长的AI能耗带来的影响。该报告呈现的是快速演进格局中的一个瞬时快照,新成果持续涌现。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies are in a phase of unprecedented rapid development following the landmark release of Chat-GPT, which brought the phenomenon to wide public attention. As the deployment of AI products rises geometrically, considerable attention is being given to the threats and opportunities that AI technologies offer, and to the need for regulatory and standards initiatives to ensure that use of the technology aligns with societal needs and generates broad benefits while mitigating risks and threats. This manuscript is the third of a series of White Papers informing the development of IEEE-SA's p3995 {\it `Standard for the Implementation of Safeguards, Controls, and Preventive Techniques for Artificial Intelligence Models'} \cite{P3395}, Chair Marina Cortês. This part focuses on assessing calmly and objectively, as far as is possible, the current state of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology development and identifying predominant trends, prospects, and ensuing risks. It necessarily forms a snapshot of the current instant of a rapidly-evolving landscape, with new products and innovations emerging continuously. While our main focus is on software and hardware developments and their corporate context, we also briefly review progress on robotics within the AI context and describe some implications of the substantial and growing AI energy demand.
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