提出周期金字塔结构,更好捕捉时间序列中的多周期规律。
Peri-midFormer: Periodic Pyramid Transformer for Time Series Analysis
- 将时间序列的多周期变化分解为包含与重叠关系的层级周期组件。
- 在五类主流任务中表现优异,尤其在长短期预测和异常检测上领先。
- 适合需要精准建模周期性特征的场景,如气象、交通分析。
时间序列分析广泛应用于天气预报、异常检测和行为识别等领域。以往方法直接使用一维时间序列建模时间变化,但受限于数据点离散性和周期变化复杂性。以气象和交通数据为例,存在年、月、周、日等多重周期。本文基于多周期性及其包含关系,将复杂周期变化解耦为层级周期组件间的包含与重叠关系,显式构建出类似金字塔的周期结构:顶层为原始序列,底层为周期逐渐缩短的周期分量。为进一步提取复杂时序模式,引入自注意力机制,在周期组件间根据包含、重叠和相邻关系计算注意力,捕捉深层周期关联。所提出的Peri-midFormer在五种主流时间序列任务(短/长期预测、缺失值填补、分类、异常检测)中表现突出。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series analysis finds wide applications in fields such as weather forecasting, anomaly detection, and behavior recognition. Previous methods attempted to model temporal variations directly using 1D time series. However, this has been quite challenging due to the discrete nature of data points in time series and the complexity of periodic variation. In terms of periodicity, taking weather and traffic data as an example, there are multi-periodic variations such as yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily, etc. In order to break through the limitations of the previous methods, we decouple the implied complex periodic variations into inclusion and overlap relationships among different level periodic components based on the observation of the multi-periodicity therein and its inclusion relationships. This explicitly represents the naturally occurring pyramid-like properties in time series, where the top level is the original time series and lower levels consist of periodic components with gradually shorter periods, which we call the periodic pyramid. To further extract complex temporal variations, we introduce self-attention mechanism into the periodic pyramid, capturing complex periodic relationships by computing attention between periodic components based on their inclusion, overlap, and adjacency relationships. Our proposed Peri-midFormer demonstrates outstanding performance in five mainstream time series analysis tasks, including short- and long-term forecasting, imputation, classification, and anomaly detection.
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