arXiv:2411.04852stat.MLcs.LG2024-11被引 21

解决标签模糊时的分类不确定性建模问题,提供可证明的置信区域。

Conformalized Credal Regions for Classification with Ambiguous Ground Truth

  • 用融贯方法直接构建可信区域,无需先验假设。
  • 在标签不明确时仍保证覆盖率,且预测集更小。
  • 能区分认知与随机不确定性,适合高风险场景。

在不确定概率机器学习中,如何从数据中无先验地推导出可信区域(即输出空间上闭合凸的概率族)是一个开放问题。在分类任务中,可信区域能在合理假设下提供可证明的不确定性保障。本文基于前期工作,展示如何使用融贯方法直接构造可信区域,从而将经典融贯预测扩展到标签模糊的问题——即输入对应的真实标签不完全已知的情形。所提出的构造具备理想的实际与理论性质:(i) 融贯覆盖率保证;(ii) 相较于经典融贯预测区域,预测集更小;(iii) 可分离认知不确定性与随机不确定性。我们在合成及真实数据集上进行了实验验证。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

An open question in \emph{Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning} is how to empirically derive a credal region (i.e., a closed and convex family of probabilities on the output space) from the available data, without any prior knowledge or assumption. In classification problems, credal regions are a tool that is able to provide provable guarantees under realistic assumptions by characterizing the uncertainty about the distribution of the labels. Building on previous work, we show that credal regions can be directly constructed using conformal methods. This allows us to provide a novel extension of classical conformal prediction to problems with ambiguous ground truth, that is, when the exact labels for given inputs are not exactly known. The resulting construction enjoys desirable practical and theoretical properties: (i) conformal coverage guarantees, (ii) smaller prediction sets (compared to classical conformal prediction regions) and (iii) disentanglement of uncertainty sources (epistemic, aleatoric). We empirically verify our findings on both synthetic and real datasets.

不确定性建模融贯预测标签模糊

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