arXiv:2411.05384cs.LGcs.AI2024-11被引 2

用AI比对历史天气图,帮气象员快速找到相似天气模式。

Advancing Meteorological Forecasting: AI-based Approach to Synoptic Weather Map Analysis

  • 构建卷积自编码器结合无监督/有监督模型,自动分析天气图特征。
  • 余弦相似度识别历史天气图效果最佳,准确率显著优于其他指标。
  • 适合气象预报员提升效率,尤其在应对复杂气候时快速参考历史案例。

随着全球变暖加剧天气模式的复杂性,精准预报愈发重要。本研究提出一种新型预处理方法与卷积自编码器模型,用于提升对天气图的解读能力。该模型可识别与当前大气状况高度相似的历史天气图,推动气象预报技术发展。研究采用VQ-VQE等无监督学习模型,以及VGG16、VGG19、Xception、InceptionV3、ResNet50等在ImageNet上训练的有监督模型,并探索EfficientNet和ConvNeXt等新架构。结果表明,尽管这些模型在多种场景下表现良好,但在识别可比天气图方面仍存在局限。基于定量与定性评估,余弦相似度被证明是最有效的匹配指标。本研究将重点从数值精度转向实际应用,确保模型在理论与实践中均具可行性,助力气象领域高效应对复杂动态环境。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

As global warming increases the complexity of weather patterns; the precision of weather forecasting becomes increasingly important. Our study proposes a novel preprocessing method and convolutional autoencoder model developed to improve the interpretation of synoptic weather maps. These are critical for meteorologists seeking a thorough understanding of weather conditions. This model could recognize historical synoptic weather maps that nearly match current atmospheric conditions, marking a significant step forward in modern technology in meteorological forecasting. This comprises unsupervised learning models like VQ-VQE, as well as supervised learning models like VGG16, VGG19, Xception, InceptionV3, and ResNet50 trained on the ImageNet dataset, as well as research into newer models like EfficientNet and ConvNeXt. Our findings proved that, while these models perform well in various settings, their ability to identify comparable synoptic weather maps has certain limits. Our research, motivated by the primary goal of significantly increasing meteorologists' efficiency in labor-intensive tasks, discovered that cosine similarity is the most effective metric, as determined by a combination of quantitative and qualitative assessments to accurately identify relevant historical weather patterns. This study broadens our understanding by shifting the emphasis from numerical precision to practical application, ensuring that our model is effective in theory practical, and accessible in the complex and dynamic field of meteorology.

气象预测图像分析AI应用

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