arXiv:2411.05793cs.LGcs.AI2024-11中稿 · manuscript of the …综述被引 120

综述时间序列预测的模型演化与挑战,揭示架构多样性新趋势。

A Comprehensive Survey of Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Architectural Diversity and Open Challenges

  • 梳理从MLP到Transformer等主流模型的演进路径
  • 指出线性层在某些场景下优于Transformer的反直觉发现
  • 适合研究者快速掌握时序建模的前沿方向与难点

时间序列预测对决策支持至关重要。在传统统计与机器学习方法之后,多种基础深度学习架构如MLPs、CNNs、RNNs和GNNs被提出。然而,各架构固有的归纳偏置限制了其性能。以处理长程依赖见长的Transformer已成为关键组件,但近期研究表明,简单线性层在某些任务中表现更优。这一发现推动了从基础模型到新兴架构及混合方法的多样化发展。本文不仅回顾了时间序列预测的历史脉络,还系统分析了架构多元化的趋势,涵盖混合模型、扩散模型、Mamba及基础模型等前沿方向。基于时间序列数据特性,深入探讨通道依赖、分布漂移、因果关系与特征提取等开放挑战。研究成果有助于降低新人入门门槛,为资深研究者提供新视角与突破机会。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is a critical task that provides key information for decision-making. After traditional statistical and machine learning approaches, various fundamental deep learning architectures such as MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and GNNs have been developed. However, the structural limitations caused by the inductive biases of each deep learning architecture constrained their performance. Transformer models, which excel at handling long-term dependencies, have become significant architectural components for time series forecasting. However, recent research has shown that alternatives such as simple linear layers can outperform Transformers. These findings have opened up new possibilities for using diverse architectures, ranging from fundamental deep learning models to emerging architectures and hybrid approaches. In this context, architectural modeling of time series forecasting has now entered a renaissance. This survey not only provides a historical context for time series forecasting but also offers comprehensive and timely analysis of the movement toward architectural diversification. By comparing and re-examining deep learning models, we uncover new perspectives and present recent trends, including hybrid, diffusion, Mamba, and foundation models. By focusing on the inherent characteristics of time series data, we also address open challenges that have gained attention in time series forecasting, such as channel dependency, distribution shift, causality, and feature extraction. These contributions help lower entry barriers for newcomers by providing a systematic understanding of the diverse research areas in time series forecasting (TSF), while offering seasoned researchers broader perspectives and new opportunities through in-depth exploration of TSF challenges. (Shortened due to arXiv's 1,920-character limit. Full version in the paper.)

时间序列深度学习模型架构综述

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