arXiv:2411.05833cs.LGstat.ML2024-11中稿 · PVLDB 2025被引 18

全自动时间序列预测框架,几分钟内完成建模与训练。

Fully Automated Correlated Time Series Forecasting in Minutes

  • 数据驱动迭代剪枝构建高质量搜索空间
  • 零样本搜索策略快速定位最优模型
  • 参数快速适配加速训练,适合工业部署

社会与工业基础设施越来越多依赖传感器生成相关时间序列。基于历史数据预测未来值具有重要意义。自动设计的模型比人工设计更准确。现有自动化方法面临三大挑战:搜索空间由专家手工构建,存在主观偏见;搜索耗时;新任务训练成本高。为此,我们提出一个完全自动化且高效的关联时间序列预测框架,可在分钟级完成搜索与训练。该框架包含数据驱动的迭代剪枝策略,自动为新任务生成高质量搜索空间;采用零样本搜索策略高效识别最优模型;并引入快速参数适应策略加速模型训练。在七个基准数据集上的实验表明,该框架达到当前最优精度,且远超现有方法的效率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Societal and industrial infrastructures and systems increasingly leverage sensors that emit correlated time series. Forecasting of future values of such time series based on recorded historical values has important benefits. Automatically designed models achieve higher accuracy than manually designed models. Given a forecasting task, which includes a dataset and a forecasting horizon, automated design methods automatically search for an optimal forecasting model for the task in a manually designed search space, and then train the identified model using the dataset to enable the forecasting. Existing automated methods face three challenges. First, the search space is constructed by human experts, rending the methods only semi-automated and yielding search spaces prone to subjective biases. Second, it is time consuming to search for an optimal model. Third, training the identified model for a new task is also costly. These challenges limit the practicability of automated methods in real-world settings. To contend with the challenges, we propose a fully automated and highly efficient correlated time series forecasting framework where the search and training can be done in minutes. The framework includes a data-driven, iterative strategy to automatically prune a large search space to obtain a high-quality search space for a new forecasting task. It includes a zero-shot search strategy to efficiently identify the optimal model in the customized search space. And it includes a fast parameter adaptation strategy to accelerate the training of the identified model. Experiments on seven benchmark datasets offer evidence that the framework is capable of state-of-the-art accuracy and is much more efficient than existing methods.

时间序列自动化建模高效预测数据驱动

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