DNAMite用离散化+核平滑,实现可解释且校准的生存分析。
DNAMite: Interpretable Calibrated Survival Analysis with Discretized Additive Models
- 通过特征离散化与核平滑学习灵活形状函数
- 在合成数据上更接近真实形状函数,预测性能媲美黑箱模型
- 输出可直接解读的累积发病贡献,适合医疗场景
生存分析是统计学中的经典问题,在医疗领域有重要应用。多数机器学习生存分析模型为黑箱,限制了其在强调可解释性的医疗场景中的使用。近年来虽出现玻璃箱模型,兼具强预测性能与可解释性,但尚未有模型能生成既校准良好又足够灵活以捕捉复杂模式的形状函数。为此,我们提出新型玻璃箱生存分析模型DNAMite。该模型在嵌入模块中结合特征离散化与核平滑,可学习具有灵活平滑度与锯齿度的形状函数。此外,DNAMite生成的形状函数经校准,可直接解释为对累积发病率的贡献。实验表明,DNAMite在合成数据上生成的形状函数更接近真实函数,同时预测性能与现有玻璃箱和黑箱模型相当,且校准效果更优。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Survival analysis is a classic problem in statistics with important applications in healthcare. Most machine learning models for survival analysis are black-box models, limiting their use in healthcare settings where interpretability is paramount. More recently, glass-box machine learning models have been introduced for survival analysis, with both strong predictive performance and interpretability. Still, several gaps remain, as no prior glass-box survival model can produce calibrated shape functions with enough flexibility to capture the complex patterns often found in real data. To fill this gap, we introduce a new glass-box machine learning model for survival analysis called DNAMite. DNAMite uses feature discretization and kernel smoothing in its embedding module, making it possible to learn shape functions with a flexible balance of smoothness and jaggedness. Further, DNAMite produces calibrated shape functions that can be directly interpreted as contributions to the cumulative incidence function. Our experiments show that DNAMite generates shape functions closer to true shape functions on synthetic data, while making predictions with comparable predictive performance and better calibration than previous glass-box and black-box models.
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