用强化学习模拟疫情中节点互动,提升数字孪生系统应对能力
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems
- 用强化学习驱动节点决策时间性交互关系
- 完全合作时感染数更低、收益更高,自由搭便车者会削弱防疫效果
- 适合研究数字孪生、疫情建模与群体行为的科研人员
数字孪生导向的复杂网络系统(DT-CNS)旨在逐步构建并扩展复杂网络系统模型,以更真实地反映现实世界。此前工作提出了进化型DT-CNS来模拟疫情中的长期自适应网络变化。本文进一步提出时间型DT-CNS模型,其中强化学习驱动的节点在疫情中决策时间性有向交互。我们考虑合作节点、利己型和无知型“搭便车者”。采用SIR模型描述疫情传播过程,研究不同节点类型下疫情严重程度对系统韧性的影响。实验表明:(i) 完全合作相比存在利己或无知“搭便车者”的合作,能带来更高奖励和更低感染数;(ii) “搭便车者”越多,奖励越低,而利己型“搭便车者”增多会进一步加剧感染;(iii) 更高感染率和更慢恢复会显著削弱系统对严重疫情的韧性。这些结果表明,促进合作、减少“搭便车者”有助于提升公共卫生应对能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The Digital Twin Oriented Complex Networked System (DT-CNS) aims to build and extend a Complex Networked System (CNS) model with progressively increasing dynamics complexity towards an accurate reflection of reality -- a Digital Twin of reality. Our previous work proposed evolutionary DT-CNSs to model the long-term adaptive network changes in an epidemic outbreak. This study extends this framework by proposeing the temporal DT-CNS model, where reinforcement learning-driven nodes make decisions on temporal directed interactions in an epidemic outbreak. We consider cooperative nodes, as well as egocentric and ignorant "free-riders" in the cooperation. We describe this epidemic spreading process with the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered ($SIR$) model and investigate the impact of epidemic severity on the epidemic resilience for different types of nodes. Our experimental results show that (i) the full cooperation leads to a higher reward and lower infection number than a cooperation with egocentric or ignorant "free-riders"; (ii) an increasing number of "free-riders" in a cooperation leads to a smaller reward, while an increasing number of egocentric "free-riders" further escalate the infection numbers and (iii) higher infection rates and a slower recovery weakens networks' resilience to severe epidemic outbreaks. These findings also indicate that promoting cooperation and reducing "free-riders" can improve public health during epidemics.
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