arXiv:2411.06214cs.LGeess.SP2024-11被引 1

用深度模型提前5000秒预测天然气管道泄漏,解决数据不平衡难题。

Early Prediction of Natural Gas Pipeline Leaks Using the MKTCN Model

  • 基于空洞卷积捕捉长期依赖,提升时间序列建模能力。
  • 在严重数据不平衡下仍保持高精度,提前5000秒准确预警泄漏。
  • 首次利用管道内数据实现泄漏早期预测,适合工业安全领域应用。

天然气管道泄漏带来重大经济损失和安全隐患。本文提出一种用于早期泄漏预测的精确模型——MKTCN。与以往异常检测不同,这是首次利用管道内部数据进行泄漏早期预测。针对长期依赖和样本不平衡两大挑战,模型采用空洞卷积扩展感受野,不增加计算开销;同时引入柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络作为全连接层,增强模型泛化能力。在两个真实世界数据集上验证结果表明,MKTCN在泛化性和分类性能上均优于现有方法,尤其在严重数据不平衡情况下表现突出,可提前5000秒有效预测泄漏。该模型显著提升了多维时序数据中长期依赖的建模能力,为管道安全监测提供可靠方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Natural gas pipeline leaks pose severe risks, leading to substantial economic losses and potential hazards to human safety. In this study, we develop an accurate model for the early prediction of pipeline leaks. To the best of our knowledge, unlike previous anomaly detection, this is the first application to use internal pipeline data for early prediction of leaks. The modeling process addresses two main challenges: long-term dependencies and sample imbalance. First, we introduce a dilated convolution-based prediction model to capture long-term dependencies, as dilated convolution expands the model's receptive field without added computational cost. Second, to mitigate sample imbalance, we propose the MKTCN model, which incorporates the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network as the fully connected layer in a dilated convolution model, enhancing network generalization. Finally, we validate the MKTCN model through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Results demonstrate that MKTCN outperforms in generalization and classification, particularly under severe data imbalance, and effectively predicts leaks up to 5000 seconds in advance. Overall, the MKTCN model represents a significant advancement in early pipeline leak prediction, providing robust generalization and improved modeling of the long-term dependencies inherent in multi-dimensional time-series data.

泄漏预测时间序列深度学习工业安全

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