arXiv:2411.06338cs.LG2024-11

用模拟临床试验方法生成可解释的因果规则,提升医疗预测准确性。

CRTRE: Causal Rule Generation with Target Trial Emulation Framework

  • 借鉴随机对照试验设计,从关联规则中挖掘因果效应
  • 在六大数据集上准确率最高达92.0%,优于基线模型
  • 适合需要可解释性与因果推断的医疗决策场景

因果推断与模型可解释性在生物医学领域日益受到关注。尽管已有进展,但在非线性环境中解耦特征并生成人类可理解表示仍缺乏研究。本文提出一种新方法CRTRE,将随机对照试验设计原则应用于关联规则的因果效应估计,并用于下游疾病发作预测任务。在六个医疗数据集(包括合成数据、真实世界疾病数据集及MIMIC-III/IV)上的实验表明,该方法表现优异:β误差为0.907,优于DWR(1.024)和SVM(1.141)。在食管癌、心脏病和马尾综合征预测任务中,准确率分别为0.789、0.920和0.300,持续超越基线模型;在ICD编码预测任务中,于MIMIC-III和MIMIC-IV上分别取得92.8和96.7的宏平均AUC,超过当前最优模型KEPT和MSMN。专家评估进一步验证了模型的有效性、因果性和可解释性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal inference and model interpretability are gaining increasing attention, particularly in the biomedical domain. Despite recent advance, decorrelating features in nonlinear environments with human-interpretable representations remains underexplored. In this study, we introduce a novel method called causal rule generation with target trial emulation framework (CRTRE), which applies randomize trial design principles to estimate the causal effect of association rules. We then incorporate such association rules for the downstream applications such as prediction of disease onsets. Extensive experiments on six healthcare datasets, including synthetic data, real-world disease collections, and MIMIC-III/IV, demonstrate the model's superior performance. Specifically, our method achieved a $β$ error of 0.907, outperforming DWR (1.024) and SVM (1.141). On real-world datasets, our model achieved accuracies of 0.789, 0.920, and 0.300 for Esophageal Cancer, Heart Disease, and Cauda Equina Syndrome prediction task, respectively, consistently surpassing baseline models. On the ICD code prediction tasks, it achieved AUC Macro scores of 92.8 on MIMIC-III and 96.7 on MIMIC-IV, outperforming the state-of-the-art models KEPT and MSMN. Expert evaluations further validate the model's effectiveness, causality, and interpretability.

因果推断医疗预测可解释性规则生成

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