提出一种新型卡尔曼滤波器，通过概率数据关联提升多目标跟踪精度。

In this paper, we derive a new Kalman filter with probabilistic data association between measurements and states. We formulate a variational inference problem to approximate the posterior density of the state conditioned on the measurement data. We view the unknown data association as a latent variable and apply Expectation Maximization (EM) to obtain a filter with update step in the same form as the Kalman filter but with expanded measurement vector of all potential associations. We show that the association probabilities can be computed as permanents of matrices with measurement likelihood entries. We also propose an ambiguity check that associates only a subset of ambiguous measurements and states probabilistically, thus reducing the association time and preventing low-probability measurements from harming the estimation accuracy. Experiments in simulation show that our filter achieves lower tracking errors than the well-established joint probabilistic data association filter (JPDAF), while running at comparable rate. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our filter in multi-object tracking (MOT) on multiple real-world datasets, including MOT17, MOT20, and DanceTrack. We achieve better higher order tracking accuracy (HOTA) than previous Kalman-filter methods and remain real-time. Associating only bounding boxes without deep features or velocities, our method ranks top-10 on both MOT17 and MOT20 in terms of HOTA. Given offline detections, our algorithm tracks at 250+ fps on a single laptop CPU. Code is available at https://github.com/hwcao17/pkf.