arXiv:2411.07853cs.LG2024-11被引 9

提出一种能评估临床生存时间不确定性的新模型,提升预测可靠性。

Evidential time-to-event prediction with calibrated uncertainty quantification

  • 用高斯随机模糊数和信念函数量化认知与随机不确定性
  • 在模拟和真实临床数据上均优于现有方法,且预测更可靠
  • 适合需要可信预测的医疗决策场景

生存分析为临床预后和治疗建议提供重要参考,但因存在删失数据,比常规回归更具挑战性。此外,缺乏置信度评估、模型鲁棒性和预测校准性,影响了预测可靠性。为此,我们提出一种专为生存时间预测设计的证据回归模型,利用高斯随机模糊数和信念函数,同时量化认知不确定性与随机不确定性,为临床提供带不确定性的生存时间预测。模型通过考虑删失的广义负对数似然函数进行训练。在不同数据分布和删失条件下的模拟数据,以及涵盖多种临床应用的真实数据集上的实验表明,该模型在准确性和可靠性方面均优于当前先进方法。结果凸显了该方法在提升生存分析临床决策中的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations. However, this task is more challenging than standard regression problems due to the presence of censored observations. Additionally, the lack of confidence assessment, model robustness, and prediction calibration raises concerns about the reliability of predictions. To address these challenges, we propose an evidential regression model specifically designed for time-to-event prediction. The proposed model quantifies both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties using Gaussian Random Fuzzy Numbers and belief functions, providing clinicians with uncertainty-aware survival time predictions. The model is trained by minimizing a generalized negative log-likelihood function accounting for data censoring. Experimental evaluations using simulated datasets with different data distributions and censoring conditions, as well as real-world datasets across diverse clinical applications, demonstrate that our model delivers both accurate and reliable performance, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. These results highlight the potential of our approach for enhancing clinical decision-making in survival analysis.

生存分析不确定性临床预测

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