从稀疏无配对数据中学习条件概率演化,提升物理系统建模精度。
Modeling Stochastic Conditional Dynamics from Sparse Observations via Kernel-Stabilized Flow Matching
- 通过联合采样状态与条件变量,构建可泛化的条件流模型
- 在材料制造过程模拟中实现更优收敛性与性能提升
- 适合处理生物、物理领域稀疏无配对观测数据
学习随时间演化的条件概率密度是概率建模与自然科学研究中的基础挑战。在生物和物理领域,预测随机非线性动力系统的演化尤为关键。尽管基于流的模型能预测概率分布的时间演化,但现有方法通常假设离散条件且样本在时间上成对,限制了其在仅能获取稀疏、无配对连续条件数据场景下的应用。我们提出条件变量流匹配(CVFM),一种可在条件密度连续空间中进行参数共享的流学习框架。为缓解先前方法的高方差不稳定性,CVFM联合采样状态与条件变量,结合条件错位核与条件Wasserstein距离,重新加权条件最优传输目标。这些改进使模型能够从稀疏、无配对的状态-条件观测中学习动态演化。我们在条件映射基准和制造过程中材料内部结构演变案例研究中评估了CVFM,结果显示其性能和收敛性优于现有条件变体。代码已公开于https://github.com/agenerale/conditional-variable-flow-matching。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Learning to transform conditional probability densities over time is a fundamental challenge spanning probabilistic modeling and the natural sciences. This task is paramount when forecasting the evolution of stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems in biological and physical domains. While flow-based models can predict the temporal evolution of probability distributions, existing approaches often assume discrete conditioning with samples that are paired across time, limiting their scientific applicability where frequently only sparse data with unpaired continuous conditioning is available. We propose Conditional Variable Flow Matching (CVFM), a framework for learning flows transforming conditional distributions with amortization across the continuous space of conditional densities. CVFM addresses the high-variance instability of prior methods by jointly sampling flows over state and conditioning variables, utilizing a conditioning mismatch kernel alongside a conditional Wasserstein distance to reweight the conditional optimal transport objective. Collectively, these advances allow for learning dynamics from sparse unpaired measurements of state-condition across time. We evaluate CVFM on conditional mapping benchmarks and a case study modeling the temporal evolution of materials internal structure during manufacturing processes, observing improved performance and convergence characteristics over existing conditional variants. Code is available at https://github.com/agenerale/conditional-variable-flow-matching.
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