arXiv:2411.08934cs.CVcs.LG2024-11

用地面照片和卫星图预测莫桑比克家庭经济状况,提升精准度。

Predicting household socioeconomic position in Mozambique using satellite and household imagery

  • 融合地面照片与卫星图,用深度学习提取特征
  • 资产类经济地位预测准确率最高,达0.68(皮尔逊相关系数)
  • 可解释性分析定位关键房屋元素,适合实地调查优化

许多研究利用卫星数据预测村庄等聚合空间单元的社会经济地位(SEP),但尚未探索家庭层面及多源影像的应用。本研究在莫桑比克南部一个半农村地区收集了975户家庭的数据,包含自报的资产、支出和收入等SEP信息,以及多模态影像——包括卫星图像和对11个家庭要素的地面摄影。我们微调卷积神经网络从图像中提取特征向量,并使用回归分析建模不同图像组合下的家庭SEP。以随机森林模型结合所有图像类型时,资产类SEP预测表现最佳,皮尔逊相关系数为0.68;而支出和收入类预测性能较低。通过SHAP分析,发现对预测贡献最大的图像存在显著差异,并识别出关键家庭要素。进一步构建仅含这些关键要素的简化模型,性能仅略低于全图像模型。结果表明,地面家庭照片可实现从区域到个体的精准经济地位预测,且结合可解释机器学习,降低数据采集成本。该工作流程可集成至常规家庭调查中,用于资产精细化评估与环境暴露分析。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Many studies have predicted SocioEconomic Position (SEP) for aggregated spatial units such as villages using satellite data, but SEP prediction at the household level and other sources of imagery have not been yet explored. We assembled a dataset of 975 households in a semi-rural district in southern Mozambique, consisting of self-reported asset, expenditure, and income SEP data, as well as multimodal imagery including satellite images and a ground-based photograph survey of 11 household elements. We fine-tuned a convolutional neural network to extract feature vectors from the images, which we then used in regression analyzes to model household SEP using different sets of image types. The best prediction performance was found when modeling asset-based SEP using random forest models with all image types, while the performance for expenditure- and income-based SEP was lower. Using SHAP, we observed clear differences between the images with the largest positive and negative effects, as well as identified the most relevant household elements in the predictions. Finally, we fitted an additional reduced model using only the identified relevant household elements, which had an only slightly lower performance compared to models using all images. Our results show how ground-based household photographs allow to zoom in from an area-level to an individual household prediction while minimizing the data collection effort by using explainable machine learning. The developed workflow can be potentially integrated into routine household surveys, where the collected household imagery could be used for other purposes, such as refined asset characterization and environmental exposure assessment.

社会经济预测地面影像可解释AI发展中国家

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