arXiv:2411.09844cs.LGcs.AI2024-11被引 20

用无监督自编码器从气象数据中识别野火异常,无需标注也能提前预警。

Deep Autoencoders for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection in Wildfire Prediction

  • 用深度自编码器提取特征,结合聚类和重建误差检测异常。
  • 全连接自编码器在澳大利亚数据上达到F1分数0.74,准确率0.71。
  • 适合缺乏标注数据的灾害预警场景,尤其适用于气候危机下的野火预测。

由于气候危机,野火对全球生态系统构成日益严重的威胁。鉴于其复杂性,亟需创新的野火预测方法,如机器学习。本研究采用不同于传统监督学习的独特路径,填补了无监督野火预测的空白,利用自编码器与聚类技术进行异常检测。实验基于2005至2021年澳大利亚的历史气象数据与归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据。分析了两种主要无监督方法:第一种使用深度自编码器提取潜在特征,输入孤立森林、局部异常因子和一类SVM进行异常检测;第二种通过深度自编码器重构输入数据,以重建误差识别异常。采用长短期记忆(LSTM)自编码器与全连接(FC)自编码器,均在仅使用正常数据的情况下无监督训练。其中,全连接自编码器表现最优,准确率达0.71,F1分数为0.74,马修斯相关系数(MCC)为0.42。结果表明该方法在缺乏真实标签情况下仍具备实用性,有效实现野火预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Wildfires pose a significantly increasing hazard to global ecosystems due to the climate crisis. Due to its complex nature, there is an urgent need for innovative approaches to wildfire prediction, such as machine learning. This research took a unique approach, differentiating from classical supervised learning, and addressed the gap in unsupervised wildfire prediction using autoencoders and clustering techniques for anomaly detection. Historical weather and normalised difference vegetation index datasets of Australia for 2005 - 2021 were utilised. Two main unsupervised approaches were analysed. The first used a deep autoencoder to obtain latent features, which were then fed into clustering models, isolation forest, local outlier factor and one-class SVM for anomaly detection. The second approach used a deep autoencoder to reconstruct the input data and use reconstruction errors to identify anomalies. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoders and fully connected (FC) autoencoders were employed in this part, both in an unsupervised way learning only from nominal data. The FC autoencoder outperformed its counterparts, achieving an accuracy of 0.71, an F1-score of 0.74, and an MCC of 0.42. These findings highlight the practicality of this method, as it effectively predicts wildfires in the absence of ground truth, utilising an unsupervised learning technique.

野火预测无监督学习自编码器异常检测

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