用深度学习生成多个天气模型间的合理中间预报,避免结构扭曲。
DeepMedcast: A Deep Learning Method for Generating Intermediate Weather Forecasts among Multiple NWP Models
- 通过深度学习融合多模型输出,保持气象特征对齐
- 预报结果比单个模型更准确且结构合理
- 适合需要高效标准化预报的业务场景
全球各大数值天气预报(NWP)中心运行着多种NWP模型,近年基于AI的NWP模型进一步增加了可用输出。尽管这一扩展可能提升预报精度,却带来关键问题:哪个预测最可信?当各模型精度相近时,无法预先判断最优者。传统集成或加权平均方法虽能提升准确性,但常导致气象上不现实且难解释的结果,如热带气旋中心分裂或锋面边界被拆分为多个系统。为此,我们提出DeepMedcast,一种深度学习方法,可在两个或更多NWP输出间生成中间预报。与平均不同,DeepMedcast使热带气旋、温带气旋、锋面和切变线等重要气象特征的位置大致接近输入模型对应特征的算术平均值,同时不扭曲气象结构。通过案例研究与验证结果表明,DeepMedcast生成的预报在准确性上优于输入模型,且具有更高的真实性和可解释性。该方法可显著提升业务预报任务(包括通用、海洋和航空气象预报)的效率与标准化水平。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers around the world operate a variety of NWP models. In addition, recent advances in AI-driven NWP models have further increased the availability of NWP outputs. While this expansion holds the potential to improve forecast accuracy, it raises a critical question: which prediction is the most plausible? If the NWP models have comparable accuracy, it is impossible to determine in advance which one is the best. Traditional approaches, such as ensemble or weighted averaging, combine multiple NWP outputs to produce a single forecast with improved accuracy. However, they often result in meteorologically unrealistic and uninterpretable outputs, such as the splitting of tropical cyclone centers or frontal boundaries into multiple distinct systems. To address this issue, we propose DeepMedcast, a deep learning method that generates intermediate forecasts between two or more NWP outputs. Unlike averaging, DeepMedcast provides predictions in which meteorologically significant features -- such as the locations of tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, fronts, and shear lines -- approximately align with the arithmetic mean of the corresponding features predicted by the input NWP models, without distorting meteorological structures. We demonstrate the capability of DeepMedcast through case studies and verification results, showing that it produces realistic and interpretable forecasts with higher accuracy than the input NWP models. By providing plausible intermediate forecasts, DeepMedcast can significantly contribute to the efficiency and standardization of operational forecasting tasks, including general, marine, and aviation forecasts.
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