DaYu模型用AI精准预测卫星云图,6小时内预报更准更细。
DaYu: Data-Driven Model for Geostationary Satellite Observed Cloud Images Forecasting
- 基于大尺度Transformer架构,专为地球静止卫星云图设计。
- 3小时预报相关系数超0.9,6小时超0.8,12小时超0.7。
- 擅长捕捉短时、中尺度小天气事件,适合灾害预警应用。
近年来,基于人工智能的气象预报方法在各类系统中展现出强大竞争力。然而,现有方法在高空间分辨率、6小时内的短期临近预报方面仍显不足,而这正是预警短时、中尺度和小尺度天气事件的关键。地球静止卫星遥感提供了高时空分辨率、全天候的观测数据,可弥补上述缺陷。为此,本文提出一种先进的数据驱动热红外云图预报模型——DaYu。与现有数据驱动预报模型不同,DaYu专为地球静止卫星观测设计,时间分辨率达0.5小时,空间分辨率为0.05°×0.05°。该模型基于大规模Transformer架构,能有效捕捉精细云结构,并学习快速变化的时空演化特征。其注意力机制设计在计算复杂度上取得平衡,具备实际应用潜力。实验表明,DaYu在3小时内预报相关系数高于0.9,6小时高于0.8,12小时高于0.7;同时能增强对短时、中尺度及小尺度天气事件的细节检测能力,有效解决现有方法在6小时内提供精细化短期临近预报的不足。此外,该模型在短期气候灾害防治方面具有重要应用前景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In the past few years, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based weather forecasting methods have widely demonstrated strong competitiveness among the weather forecasting systems. However, these methods are insufficient for high-spatial-resolution short-term nowcasting within 6 hours, which is crucial for warning short-duration, mesoscale and small-scale weather events. Geostationary satellite remote sensing provides detailed, high spatio-temporal and all-day observations, which can address the above limitations of existing methods. Therefore, this paper proposed an advanced data-driven thermal infrared cloud images forecasting model, "DaYu." Unlike existing data-driven weather forecasting models, DaYu is specifically designed for geostationary satellite observations, with a temporal resolution of 0.5 hours and a spatial resolution of ${0.05}^\circ$ $\times$ ${0.05}^\circ$. DaYu is based on a large-scale transformer architecture, which enables it to capture fine-grained cloud structures and learn fast-changing spatio-temporal evolution features effectively. Moreover, its attention mechanism design achieves a balance in computational complexity, making it practical for applications. DaYu not only achieves accurate forecasts up to 3 hours with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.9, 6 hours higher than 0.8, and 12 hours higher than 0.7, but also detects short-duration, mesoscale, and small-scale weather events with enhanced detail, effectively addressing the shortcomings of existing methods in providing detailed short-term nowcasting within 6 hours. Furthermore, DaYu has significant potential in short-term climate disaster prevention and mitigation.
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