arXiv:2411.10214cs.LGcs.NA2024-11

用机器学习预测污染场地达标时间,减少人工采样依赖。

Machine Learning Algorithms to Assess Site Closure Time Frames for Soil and Groundwater Contamination

  • 结合线性回归与双向LSTM预测污染物浓度变化趋势。
  • 模型在萨凡纳河基地数据上准确预测未来4年污染水平。
  • 适合环境监测、政策制定者及长期污染治理研究者。

受控自然衰减(MNA)因其成本低、环境干扰小,正成为土壤和地下水污染管理的有效方法。然而,其实施需长期地下水监测以确保污染物降至安全标准。本研究扩展了用于长期环境监测的Python工具包PyLEnM,引入新算法提升预测与分析能力。采用线性回归估算锶-90和碘-129等污染物达标的时长,并利用双向长短期记忆网络(Bi-LSTM)预测未来污染水平。同时,通过随机森林回归识别影响达标时间的关键因素。基于萨凡纳河基地F区的数据,初步结果显示污染物浓度呈显著下降趋势,波动与初始浓度及地下水流动动力学相关。Bi-LSTM模型成功预测了未来四年的污染浓度,表明先进时序分析可优化MNA策略,减少对人工采样的依赖。代码及使用说明、验证与依赖项详见:https://github.com/csplevuanh/pylenm_extension。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) is gaining prominence as an effective method for managing soil and groundwater contamination due to its cost-efficiency and minimal environmental disruption. Despite its benefits, MNA necessitates extensive groundwater monitoring to ensure that contaminant levels decrease to meet safety standards. This study expands the capabilities of PyLEnM, a Python package designed for long-term environmental monitoring, by incorporating new algorithms to enhance its predictive and analytical functionalities. We introduce methods to estimate the timeframe required for contaminants like Sr-90 and I-129 to reach regulatory safety standards using linear regression and to forecast future contaminant levels with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) networks. Additionally, Random Forest regression is employed to identify factors influencing the time to reach safety standards. Our methods are illustrated using data from the Savannah River Site (SRS) F-Area, where preliminary findings reveal a notable downward trend in contaminant levels, with variability linked to initial concentrations and groundwater flow dynamics. The Bi-LSTM model effectively predicts contaminant concentrations for the next four years, demonstrating the potential of advanced time series analysis to improve MNA strategies and reduce reliance on manual groundwater sampling. The code, along with its usage instructions, validation, and requirements, is available at: https://github.com/csplevuanh/pylenm_extension.

污染预测时间序列机器学习

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