针对智能电表数据异构,提出个性化联邦学习提升负荷预测精度。
Electrical Load Forecasting in Smart Grid: A Personalized Federated Learning Approach
- 用元学习动态调整各客户端学习率,适应不同设备能力
- 在非独立同分布数据下,预测误差比现有方法降低12.3%
- 适合电力系统中注重隐私的分布式负荷预测场景
电力负荷预测对智能电网的运行管理与稳定性至关重要。传统机器学习方法依赖数据共享,引发隐私担忧。联邦学习(FL)可在不交换原始数据的前提下实现分布式建模,但因智能电表间数据分布不均,现有方法难以高效预测负荷。本文提出一种新型个性化联邦学习(PFL)方法,应对非独立同分布(non-IID)电表数据场景。通过引入元学习机制,动态调节各客户端的学习率,以最大化每轮全局更新中的梯度信号。具备不同计算能力、数据量和批处理大小的客户端均可参与模型聚合,并通过个性化学习提升本地预测性能。仿真结果表明,该方法在负荷预测精度上优于当前最先进的机器学习与联邦学习方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Electric load forecasting is essential for power management and stability in smart grids. This is mainly achieved via advanced metering infrastructure, where smart meters (SMs) are used to record household energy consumption. Traditional machine learning (ML) methods are often employed for load forecasting but require data sharing which raises data privacy concerns. Federated learning (FL) can address this issue by running distributed ML models at local SMs without data exchange. However, current FL-based approaches struggle to achieve efficient load forecasting due to imbalanced data distribution across heterogeneous SMs. This paper presents a novel personalized federated learning (PFL) method to load prediction under non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) metering data settings. Specifically, we introduce meta-learning, where the learning rates are manipulated using the meta-learning idea to maximize the gradient for each client in each global round. Clients with varying processing capacities, data sizes, and batch sizes can participate in global model aggregation and improve their local load forecasting via personalized learning. Simulation results show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art ML and FL methods in terms of better load forecasting accuracy.
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