arXiv:2411.10768econ.EMcs.CE2024-11被引 1

构建可解释的气候模拟器,用于经济模型中的气候影响评估。

Building Interpretable Climate Emulators for Economics

  • 用多箱线性模型构建碳循环模拟器,保持物理守恒并可定制。
  • 引入土地利用变化显著改变大气碳储量与最优减排路径。
  • 将全球温度投影转为区域不均温升,分析经济损害传播。

本文提出一种高效且可解释的气候模拟器(CE)框架,用于宏观经济模型中的气候变化研究。首先,构建广义线性多储层(箱体)模型作为碳循环模拟器(CCE),该模型保持关键物理量守恒,可适配不同应用场景。在代表性代理人经济模型中评估三种版本:(i) 三箱结构,类比DICE-2016;(ii) 四箱扩展;(iii) 显式包含土地利用变化的四箱模型。结果表明,三箱模型能良好复现基准结果,第四储层贡献有限,但引入土地利用变化显著影响陆地生物圈碳储存能力,进而改变大气碳浓度、温度轨迹和最优减排策略。其次,研究基于模式缩放的技术,将气候模拟器输出的全球平均升温转化为空间异质性温升场。揭示区域基线气候、非均匀升温及不确定性如何传递至经济损害评估。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We introduce a framework for developing efficient and interpretable climate emulators (CEs) for economic models of climate change. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we propose a general framework for constructing carbon-cycle emulators (CCEs) for macroeconomic models. The framework is implemented as a generalized linear multi-reservoir (box) model that conserves key physical quantities and can be customized for specific applications. We consider three versions of the CCE, which we evaluate within a simple representative agent economic model: (i) a three-box setting comparable to DICE-2016, (ii) a four-box extension, and (iii) a four-box version that explicitly captures land-use change. While the three-box model reproduces benchmark results well and the fourth reservoir adds little, incorporating the impact of land-use change on the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere substantially alters atmospheric carbon stocks, temperature trajectories, and the optimal mitigation path. Second, we investigate pattern-scaling techniques that transform global-mean temperature projections from CEs into spatially heterogeneous warming fields. We show how regional baseline climates, non-uniform warming, and the associated uncertainties propagate into economic damages.

气候模拟经济模型碳循环可解释性

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