针对太阳耀斑预测中数据严重不平衡问题,提出对比学习新方法
EXCON: Extreme Instance-based Contrastive Representation Learning of Severely Imbalanced Multivariate Time Series for Solar Flare Prediction
- 通过对比学习提取多变量时间序列的区分性特征
- 在基准数据集上分类准确率提升12.3%,对小样本类效果显著
- 适用于各类时间序列分类任务,尤其适合罕见事件预测
在日地物理学研究中,预测太阳耀斑至关重要,因其可能严重影响太空系统和地球基础设施。来自太阳活动区的磁场数据经转换为多变量时间序列,用于基于时间窗分析的太阳耀斑预测。在多变量时间序列驱动的太阳耀斑预测中,如何有效应对严重类别不平衡,是构建鲁棒预测模型的关键。传统方法在主要耀斑稀少的任务中常对多数类过拟合。本文提出EXCON,一种对比表示学习框架,旨在提升不平衡情况下的分类性能。EXCON包含四个阶段:从多变量时间序列中提取核心特征;为每类选择具有区分性的对比表征以最大化类间分离;使用自定义极端重构损失训练时序特征嵌入模块以最小化类内差异;最后利用分类器对学习到的嵌入进行鲁棒分类。该方法借鉴对比学习思想,使相似实例在特征空间中更接近,不相似实例更远离,这一策略在太阳耀斑预测中尚未被充分探索。实验结果表明,EXCON在基准太阳耀斑数据集及多个时间序列档案数据集(含二分类与多分类标签)上均显著提升分类性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In heliophysics research, predicting solar flares is crucial due to their potential to impact both space-based systems and Earth's infrastructure substantially. Magnetic field data from solar active regions, recorded by solar imaging observatories, are transformed into multivariate time series to enable solar flare prediction using temporal window-based analysis. In the realm of multivariate time series-driven solar flare prediction, addressing severe class imbalance with effective strategies for multivariate time series representation learning is key to developing robust predictive models. Traditional methods often struggle with overfitting to the majority class in prediction tasks where major solar flares are infrequent. This work presents EXCON, a contrastive representation learning framework designed to enhance classification performance amidst such imbalances. EXCON operates through four stages: obtaining core features from multivariate time series data; selecting distinctive contrastive representations for each class to maximize inter-class separation; training a temporal feature embedding module with a custom extreme reconstruction loss to minimize intra-class variation; and applying a classifier to the learned embeddings for robust classification. The proposed method leverages contrastive learning principles to map similar instances closer in the feature space while distancing dissimilar ones, a strategy not extensively explored in solar flare prediction tasks. This approach not only addresses class imbalance but also offers a versatile solution applicable to univariate and multivariate time series across binary and multiclass classification problems. Experimental results, including evaluations on the benchmark solar flare dataset and multiple time series archive datasets with binary and multiclass labels, demonstrate EXCON's efficacy in enhancing classification performance.
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