提出混合损失框架,让时间序列预测更关注关键分量。
A Hybrid Loss Framework for Decomposition-based Time Series Forecasting Methods: Balancing Global and Component Errors
- 引入全局与分量损失,动态调整权重优化学习
- 在多个数据集上实现0.5%-2%的性能提升
- 适合改进现有分解类时序模型的精度
准确的时间序列预测对众多行业至关重要。当前许多方法将时间序列分解为多个子序列,使用不同模型架构并以端到端整体损失进行训练。然而,这种整体损失是否真正重视分解中关键子序列的重要性?我们研究了整体损失对序列分解方法的影响,发现其可能引入学习偏差,阻碍模型对重要子序列的优先学习,从而限制预测性能。为此,我们提出一种结合全局损失与分量损失的混合损失框架。该框架为每个子序列引入分量损失,并采用双极值优化算法动态调节整体损失与分量损失间的权重,以及分量损失内部的权重。这使模型能更聚焦于关键子序列,同时保持较低的整体损失。我们将该框架集成到多个时序预测方法中,在多个数据集上评估,结果表明无需修改模型结构即可实现0.5%-2%的平均性能提升。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate time series forecasting, predicting future values based on past data, is crucial for diverse industries. Many current time series methods decompose time series into multiple sub-series, applying different model architectures and training with an end-to-end overall loss for forecasting. However, this raises a question: does this overall loss prioritize the importance of critical sub-series within the decomposition for the better performance? To investigate this, we conduct a study on the impact of overall loss on existing time series methods with sequence decomposition. Our findings reveal that overall loss may introduce bias in model learning, hindering the learning of the prioritization of more significant sub-series and limiting the forecasting performance. To address this, we propose a hybrid loss framework combining the global and component losses. This framework introduces component losses for each sub-series alongside the original overall loss. It employs a dual min-max algorithm to dynamically adjust weights between the overall loss and component losses, and within component losses. This enables the model to achieve better performance of current time series methods by focusing on more critical sub-series while still maintaining a low overall loss. We integrate our loss framework into several time series methods and evaluate the performance on multiple datasets. Results show an average improvement of 0.5-2% over existing methods without any modifications to the model architectures.
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