arXiv:2411.11448cs.LGcs.AI2024-11被引 2

提出基于PCA的自适应嵌入,提升交通预测模型跨城市、长时序泛化能力

Unveiling the Inflexibility of Adaptive Embedding in Traffic Forecasting

  • 用PCA重构嵌入层,实现无需重训练的动态环境适应
  • 在跨城市零样本预测中,性能较原模型提升32.7%(相对)
  • 适合需要高泛化性的智能交通系统开发者

时空图神经网络(ST-GNNs)和Transformer在交通预测中表现优异,但近年来快速城市化导致交通模式与出行需求动态变化,对长期预测构成挑战。现有模型在扩展时间场景和跨城市应用中的泛化能力尚未充分探索。本文在扩展交通基准上评估主流模型,发现其随时间推移性能显著下降,归因于归纳能力有限。分析表明,问题源于模型难以适应城市环境中演变的空间关系。为此,我们重新设计自适应嵌入,提出基于主成分分析(PCA)的嵌入方法,使模型可在不重训练的前提下适应新场景。将该嵌入引入现有ST-GNN与Transformer架构,在跨城市零样本预测中实现显著性能提升,最高达32.7%(相对)。该方法支持训练与测试间图结构的灵活变化,展现了增强时空模型鲁棒性与泛化性的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) and Transformers have shown significant promise in traffic forecasting by effectively modeling temporal and spatial correlations. However, rapid urbanization in recent years has led to dynamic shifts in traffic patterns and travel demand, posing major challenges for accurate long-term traffic prediction. The generalization capability of ST-GNNs in extended temporal scenarios and cross-city applications remains largely unexplored. In this study, we evaluate state-of-the-art models on an extended traffic benchmark and observe substantial performance degradation in existing ST-GNNs over time, which we attribute to their limited inductive capabilities. Our analysis reveals that this degradation stems from an inability to adapt to evolving spatial relationships within urban environments. To address this limitation, we reconsider the design of adaptive embeddings and propose a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) embedding approach that enables models to adapt to new scenarios without retraining. We incorporate PCA embeddings into existing ST-GNN and Transformer architectures, achieving marked improvements in performance. Notably, PCA embeddings allow for flexibility in graph structures between training and testing, enabling models trained on one city to perform zero-shot predictions on other cities. This adaptability demonstrates the potential of PCA embeddings in enhancing the robustness and generalization of spatiotemporal models.

交通预测图神经网络泛化能力PCA嵌入

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