用随机森林+主成分分析自动识别内幕交易,准确率达96.43%
A Random Forest approach to detect and identify Unlawful Insider Trading
- 结合PCA与随机森林,端到端处理高维金融数据
- 最佳模型准确率96.43%,误判合法交易仅2.00%
- 可识别股权与治理类关键特征,助力监管规则优化
根据1934年《证券交易法》,内幕交易是滥用获取公司机密信息的特权。尽管“常规”与“投机性”内幕交易之间界限模糊,但传统人工设计方法难以捕捉内幕者操纵市场价格的策略。本文基于多行业、多协变量构建的高维金融与交易数据,探索并实现了与Deng等(2019)研究的对比实验,独立构建了集成主成分分析的随机森林(PCA-RF)和独立随机森林(RF)模型,使用320和3984条经半手动标注并归一化的交易数据。该方法成功揭示潜在结构,有效检测非法内幕交易。在多个场景中,最优模型对交易的分类准确率达96.43%。整体上,模型对95.47%的合法交易判定为合法,对98.00%的非法交易判定为非法,仅将2.00%的合法交易误判为非法。此外,基于基尼不纯度的特征重要性分析显示,所有权与治理相关特征在决策中起关键作用。研究表明,该自动化端到端方法可大幅减少人工工作量,助力监管资源转向规则完善与未捕获非法交易的追踪。所开发的金融与交易特征具备识别欺诈行为的能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
According to The Exchange Act, 1934 unlawful insider trading is the abuse of access to privileged corporate information. While a blurred line between "routine" the "opportunistic" insider trading exists, detection of strategies that insiders mold to maneuver fair market prices to their advantage is an uphill battle for hand-engineered approaches. In the context of detailed high-dimensional financial and trade data that are structurally built by multiple covariates, in this study, we explore, implement and provide detailed comparison to the existing study (Deng et al. (2019)) and independently implement automated end-to-end state-of-art methods by integrating principal component analysis to the random forest (PCA-RF) followed by a standalone random forest (RF) with 320 and 3984 randomly selected, semi-manually labeled and normalized transactions from multiple industry. The settings successfully uncover latent structures and detect unlawful insider trading. Among the multiple scenarios, our best-performing model accurately classified 96.43 percent of transactions. Among all transactions the models find 95.47 lawful as lawful and $98.00$ unlawful as unlawful percent. Besides, the model makes very few mistakes in classifying lawful as unlawful by missing only 2.00 percent. In addition to the classification task, model generated Gini Impurity based features ranking, our analysis show ownership and governance related features based on permutation values play important roles. In summary, a simple yet powerful automated end-to-end method relieves labor-intensive activities to redirect resources to enhance rule-making and tracking the uncaptured unlawful insider trading transactions. We emphasize that developed financial and trading features are capable of uncovering fraudulent behaviors.
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