AI+物理模型融合,精准调度西班牙塞古拉河盆地水资源
Integrated Water Resource Management in the Segura Hydrographic Basin: An Artificial Intelligence Approach
- 融合水文模型、作物模型与优化算法,实现供需智能预测
- 六个月内分配约6.42亿立方米水,缺水率仅9.7%
- 适合水资源管理决策者及跨流域治理研究者参考
在需求不确定、供给波动及复杂治理政策背景下,有效管理水资源是一项重大挑战。本文提出一种整合先进物理模型、遥感技术和人工智能算法的综合性框架,用于应对水管理中的多重难题。该方法可准确预测水资源可用性,估算用水需求,并在短中期范围内优化资源配置。研究以西班牙塞古拉河盆地为案例,成功在六个月内分配约6.42亿立方米(hm³)的水量,将缺水总量控制在总需求的9.7%以内。该方法显著减少碳排放,提升资源利用效率。其稳健性支持科学决策,已在当地实际运营中落地应用。该框架具备良好泛化能力,可推广至其他流域,助力更高效的治理与政策执行。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Managing resources effectively in uncertain demand, variable availability, and complex governance policies is a significant challenge. This paper presents a paradigmatic framework for addressing these issues in water management scenarios by integrating advanced physical modelling, remote sensing techniques, and Artificial Intelligence algorithms. The proposed approach accurately predicts water availability, estimates demand, and optimizes resource allocation on both short- and long-term basis, combining a comprehensive hydrological model, agronomic crop models for precise demand estimation, and Mixed-Integer Linear Programming for efficient resource distribution. In the study case of the Segura Hydrographic Basin, the approach successfully allocated approximately 642 million cubic meters ($hm^3$) of water over six months, minimizing the deficit to 9.7% of the total estimated demand. The methodology demonstrated significant environmental benefits, reducing CO2 emissions while optimizing resource distribution. This robust solution supports informed decision-making processes, ensuring sustainable water management across diverse contexts. The generalizability of this approach allows its adaptation to other basins, contributing to improved governance and policy implementation on a broader scale. Ultimately, the methodology has been validated and integrated into the operational water management practices in the Segura Hydrographic Basin in Spain.
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