中国公司用非受控芯片+软件优化，绕过美国芯片出口管制
Whack-a-Chip: The Futility of Hardware-Centric Export Controls
- 用受限芯片的替代品配合软件优化提升性能
- 腾讯用非受控H20芯片运行大型AI模型，性能接近高端卡
- 适合关注科技制裁与产业应对策略的人阅读
美国对半导体的出口管制广为人知地存在漏洞，中国已能利用被窃取的芯片持续构建前沿人工智能模型。本文首次公开提供确凿证据，揭示中国领先AI实验室如何规避和绕过美国出口管制。我们分析显示，腾讯等中国企业不仅使用受控芯片，更通过软件与建模技术，最大化低性能硬件的效率。具体而言，腾讯借助非出口管制的NVIDIA H20芯片成功驱动其Hunyuan-Large模型，体现了机器学习整体效率提升，已显著削弱美国原有出口管制所构建的技术壁垒。最后，本文探讨了这一发现对美国未来出口管制战略的深远影响。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
U.S. export controls on semiconductors are widely known to be permeable, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) steadily creating state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) models with exfiltrated chips. This paper presents the first concrete, public evidence of how leading PRC AI labs evade and circumvent U.S. export controls. We examine how Chinese companies, notably Tencent, are not only using chips that are restricted under U.S. export controls but are also finding ways to circumvent these regulations by using software and modeling techniques that maximize less capable hardware. Specifically, we argue that Tencent's ability to power its Hunyuan-Large model with non-export controlled NVIDIA H20s exemplifies broader gains in efficiency in machine learning that have eroded the moat that the United States initially built via its existing export controls. Finally, we examine the implications of this finding for the future of the United States' export control strategy.
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