用机器学习预测团队对话轮换模式,揭示性格与沟通的关系。
ML-SPEAK: A Theory-Guided Machine Learning Method for Studying and Predicting Conversational Turn-taking Patterns
- 基于性格特质和对话数据训练模型,捕捉成员发言规律。
- 在真实学生团队数据上,预测准确率优于基线方法。
- 适合心理学、组织管理研究者及团队优化决策者。
从人格特质预测团队动态仍是心理学与团队组织中的核心挑战。理解团队构成如何生成团队过程,可显著推动团队研究,并为团队人员配置与培训提供实践指导。尽管输入-过程-输出(IPO)模型在该领域有一定帮助,但团队成员间复杂的互动仍需更动态的方法。本文构建了一个自组织团队中对话轮换的计算模型,可深入揭示个体人格特质与团队沟通动态之间的关系。研究聚焦于成员间的发言顺序(不依赖内容),这类模式虽客观可测,却显著影响团队涌现状态与结果。模型基于特定性格组合团队的对话数据训练,能学习个体特质与发言行为间的关联,并仅凭团队性格构成预测整体沟通模式。首先在模拟数据上评估模型性能,随后应用于真实学生团队的对话数据。相比基线方法,本模型在预测发言序列方面表现更优,并揭示了人格特质与沟通模式间的新关系。该方法为团队过程提供了更数据驱动、动态的理解,有望推动团队理论发展,并助力团队人员配置与培训优化。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predicting team dynamics from personality traits remains a fundamental challenge for the psychological sciences and team-based organizations. Understanding how team composition generates team processes can significantly advance team-based research along with providing practical guidelines for team staffing and training. Although the Input-Process-Output (IPO) model has been useful for studying these connections, the complex nature of team member interactions demands a more dynamic approach. We develop a computational model of conversational turn-taking within self-organized teams that can provide insight into the relationships between team member personality traits and team communication dynamics. We focus on turn-taking patterns between team members, independent of content, which can significantly influence team emergent states and outcomes while being objectively measurable and quantifiable. As our model is trained on conversational data from teams of given trait compositions, it can learn the relationships between individual traits and speaking behaviors and predict group-wide patterns of communication based on team trait composition alone. We first evaluate the performance of our model using simulated data and then apply it to real-world data collected from self-organized student teams. In comparison to baselines, our model is more accurate at predicting speaking turn sequences and can reveal new relationships between team member traits and their communication patterns. Our approach offers a more data-driven and dynamic understanding of team processes. By bridging the gap between individual personality traits and team communication patterns, our model has the potential to inform theories of team processes and provide powerful insights into optimizing team staffing and training.
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