用分位数损失提升深度模型预测能力,更好捕捉极端波动下的不确定性。
Quantile deep learning models for multi-step ahead time series prediction
- 将分位数损失融入深度学习框架,实现多步预测的分位数输出
- 在比特币、以太坊数据上表现优于传统模型,且不牺牲精度
- 适合需要风险评估与极端值预测的金融场景
不确定性量化在时间序列预测中至关重要,分位数回归为极端值预测提供了有效机制。尽管深度学习在多步预测中表现突出,但分位数深度学习模型的发展与评估仍较有限。本文提出一种新型分位数回归深度学习框架,用于多步时间序列预测,通过引入分位数损失函数,使模型在不降低预测精度的前提下,提供多个分位数的预测结果。我们在比特币和以太坊的日收盘价数据以及多个基准数据集上测试了该方法,涵盖单变量与多变量建模。实验表明,与文献中的传统深度学习模型相比,该模型在高波动和极端条件下更具鲁棒性,能更有效地处理波动性,并为决策提供额外的不确定性信息。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in time series prediction, and quantile regression offers a valuable mechanism for uncertainty quantification which is useful for extreme value forecasting. Although deep learning models have been prominent in multi-step ahead prediction, the development and evaluation of quantile deep learning models have been limited. We present a novel quantile regression deep learning framework for multi-step time series prediction. In this way, we elevate the capabilities of deep learning models by incorporating quantile regression, thus providing a more nuanced understanding of predictive values. We provide an implementation of prominent deep learning models for multi-step ahead time series prediction and evaluate their performance under high volatility and extreme conditions. We include multivariate and univariate modelling, strategies and provide a comparison with conventional deep learning models from the literature. Our models are tested on two cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum, using daily close-price data and selected benchmark time series datasets. The results show that integrating a quantile loss function with deep learning provides additional predictions for selected quantiles without a loss in the prediction accuracy when compared to the literature. Our quantile model has the ability to handle volatility more effectively and provides additional information for decision-making and uncertainty quantification through the use of quantiles when compared to conventional deep learning models.
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