arXiv:2411.15893cs.LGcs.AI2024-11被引 4

针对城市时空数据分布漂移,提出在线持续学习框架DOST,实现高效精准预测。

Distribution-aware Online Continual Learning for Urban Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

  • 设计自适应时空网络与位置无关适配器,动态应对各区域分布变化。
  • 在四个真实数据集上平均预测耗时仅0.1秒,误差降低12.89%。
  • 适合需要实时更新的城市交通、调度等场景的从业者使用。

城市时空(ST)预测对智能调度、出行规划等应用至关重要。以往研究多在离线环境下建模城市各位置间的时空关联,忽视了城市时空数据的非平稳性,尤其是随时间产生的分布漂移。这一疏忽导致实际应用中性能下降。本文首先分析城市时空数据中的分布漂移现象,提出DOST——一种专为城市时空数据特性设计的新型在线持续学习框架。DOST采用具备变量无关适配器的自适应时空网络,动态应对各城市位置的独特分布漂移。为进一步适应漂移的渐进特性,提出唤醒-休眠学习策略,在在线阶段间歇性微调适配器,降低计算开销。该策略结合面向城市时空序列数据的流式记忆更新机制,有效适应新模式的同时防止灾难性遗忘。实验结果表明,DOST在四个真实数据集上优于现有先进模型,平均预测耗时仅为0.1秒,相比基线模型预测误差降低12.89%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Urban spatio-temporal (ST) forecasting is crucial for various urban applications such as intelligent scheduling and trip planning. Previous studies focus on modeling ST correlations among urban locations in offline settings, which often neglect the non-stationary nature of urban ST data, particularly, distribution shifts over time. This oversight can lead to degraded performance in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we first analyze the distribution shifts in urban ST data, and then introduce DOST, a novel online continual learning framework tailored for ST data characteristics. DOST employs an adaptive ST network equipped with a variable-independent adapter to address the unique distribution shifts at each urban location dynamically. Further, to accommodate the gradual nature of these shifts, we also develop an awake-hibernate learning strategy that intermittently fine-tunes the adapter during the online phase to reduce computational overhead. This strategy integrates a streaming memory update mechanism designed for urban ST sequential data, enabling effective network adaptation to new patterns while preventing catastrophic forgetting. Experimental results confirm DOST's superiority over state-of-the-art models on four real-world datasets, providing online forecasts within an average of 0.1 seconds and achieving a 12.89% reduction in forecast errors compared to baseline models.

时空预测在线学习持续学习城市计算

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