arXiv:2411.16098physics.ao-phcs.CV2024-11被引 27

用AI将全球降水数据分辨率提升至2公里10分钟,精准捕捉强降雨

Global spatio-temporal downscaling of ERA5 precipitation through generative AI

  • 用条件生成对抗网络将ERA5降水数据从24km/1小时提升至2km/10分钟
  • 生成的高分辨率降水场真实还原极端降雨分布,且具备良好泛化能力
  • 适合洪水风险评估、气候影响建模等需要高精度降水数据的研究

降水的空间与时间分布对水资源、农业产量及洪涝等灾害有重大影响。虽然ERA5再分析数据提供了长期全球一致的降水信息,但其分辨率(24 km,1小时)无法捕捉降水的高时空变异性,尤其遗漏了关键的局部强降雨事件。本文提出spateGAN-ERA5,首个基于深度学习的全球尺度降水时空降尺度方法。该方法采用条件生成对抗网络(cGAN),将ERA5降水数据从24 km/1小时提升至2 km/10分钟,生成具有真实时空模式和准确雨强分布(包括极端值)的高分辨率降水场。其计算高效,可生成大规模解集,有效缓解降尺度中的不确定性。模型仅在德国数据上训练,但在美国和澳大利亚不同气候区验证中表现良好,展现出强泛化能力,证明其全球适用性。spateGAN-ERA5填补了高分辨率降水数据的空白,为水文气象研究、洪水风险评估、人工智能增强天气预报及气候影响建模提供新工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation has a significant impact on human lives by determining freshwater resources and agricultural yield, but also rainfall-driven hazards like flooding or landslides. While the ERA5 reanalysis dataset provides consistent long-term global precipitation information that allows investigations of these impacts, it lacks the resolution to capture the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation. ERA5 misses intense local rainfall events that are crucial drivers of devastating flooding - a critical limitation since extreme weather events become increasingly frequent. Here, we introduce spateGAN-ERA5, the first deep learning based spatio-temporal downscaling of precipitation data on a global scale. SpateGAN-ERA5 uses a conditional generative adversarial neural network (cGAN) that enhances the resolution of ERA5 precipitation data from 24 km and 1 hour to 2 km and 10 minutes, delivering high-resolution rainfall fields with realistic spatio-temporal patterns and accurate rain rate distribution including extremes. Its computational efficiency enables the generation of a large ensemble of solutions, addressing uncertainties inherent to the challenges of downscaling. Trained solely on data from Germany and validated in the US and Australia considering diverse climate zones, spateGAN-ERA5 demonstrates strong generalization indicating a robust global applicability. SpateGAN-ERA5 fulfils a critical need for high-resolution precipitation data in hydrological and meteorological research, offering new capabilities for flood risk assessment, AI-enhanced weather forecasting, and impact modelling to address climate-driven challenges worldwide.

降水降尺度生成模型气候建模AI气象

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