用无监督学习分析29栋建筑供暖负荷,发现动态时间规整最有效。
A multi-dimensional unsupervised machine learning framework for clustering residential heat load profiles
- 从5个维度建模供暖行为,用三种距离度量聚类
- 动态时间规整比欧氏距离更优,揭示温度与耗能强关联
- 适合做智能电网需求响应的建筑负荷研究者
实现能源转型的关键在于高效管理供暖系统,为住宅和工业环境提供空间采暖与热水。核心挑战是有效刻画大规模建筑群的负荷特征,以提升需求预测并支持高效的需求响应(DR)方案。本文提出一种无监督机器学习框架,用于聚类住宅供暖负荷曲线,聚焦天然气锅炉的空间采暖与热水制备。分析涵盖锅炉使用、热需求、气象条件、建筑特征和用户行为五个维度。采用欧氏距离(ED)、动态时间规整(DTW)和导数动态时间规整(DDTW)三种度量方法,并通过标准聚类指数评估性能。在希腊29栋安装智能电表的住宅建筑上,基于一个完整的供暖季(210天)数据进行验证。结果表明,DTW是最优度量,揭示了锅炉使用、热需求与气温间的强相关性;ED表现出更广泛的跨维度关联;而DDTW效果较差,导致聚类质量下降。这些发现为理解供暖负荷行为提供了关键洞察,为设计更精准有效的需求响应计划奠定了基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Central to achieving the energy transition, heating systems provide essential space heating and hot water in residential and industrial environments. A major challenge lies in effectively profiling large clusters of buildings to improve demand estimation and enable efficient Demand Response (DR) schemes. This paper addresses this challenge by introducing an unsupervised machine learning framework for clustering residential heating load profiles, focusing on natural gas space heating and hot water preparation boilers. The profiles are analyzed across five dimensions: boiler usage, heating demand, weather conditions, building characteristics, and user behavior. We apply three distance metrics: Euclidean Distance (ED), Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), and Derivative Dynamic Time Warping (DDTW), and evaluate their performance using established clustering indices. The proposed method is assessed considering 29 residential buildings in Greece equipped with smart meters throughout a calendar heating season (i.e., 210 days). Results indicate that DTW is the most suitable metric, uncovering strong correlations between boiler usage, heat demand, and temperature, while ED highlights broader interrelations across dimensions and DDTW proves less effective, resulting in weaker clusters. These findings offer key insights into heating load behavior, establishing a solid foundation for developing more targeted and effective DR programs.
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